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Friday, July 24, 2026

Chile's output fell 13.8% in one month.

Copper topped $14,000 a tonne in May. It still trades near $13,500. Most coverage points to demand from data centers and electric vehicles. The force behind this price is not demand. It is supply. Specifically, it is an industrial chemical most investors have never thought about.

Sulphuric acid. Two events severed most of the world's flexible supply of it within six weeks. The copper market has not recovered.

Seventeen percent of global copper comes from solvent extraction and electrowinning, or SX-EW. That process uses massive volumes of sulphuric acid to dissolve copper from ore. No acid, no copper. A war and a policy decision cut off the two largest sources of the acid's key ingredient. There is no fast way to replace them.

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Sulphuric acid is made from sulphur. Sulphur is not something anyone can produce on demand. It is a byproduct of oil and gas refining. Nobody drills for sulphur. When refineries run, sulphur appears. When sulphur shipments stop, you cannot make more.

Nearly half the world's seaborne sulphur trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran retaliated with drone attacks on commercial shipping and declared the strait closed. Within weeks, roughly 13 to 15 million tonnes per year of sulphur trade were disrupted. Spot sulphur prices jumped from about $650 per tonne to $1,060.

The Middle East produces about a quarter of global sulphur. Most of it leaves by ship through that one strait. When the strait closed, the supply did not reroute. It stopped.

Observation: Global sulphur exports fell 45% after the Hormuz closure.
Interpretation: Sulphur is a byproduct, not a product. There is no way to scale production to fill the gap. The loss is structural.

Six weeks later, the second cut came from policy. On April 10, China banned all sulphuric acid exports through the end of 2026. This was not a quota trim. It replaced a 700,000-tonne January-to-April quota with zero.

China exported 4.65 million tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2025. That was a 73% surge from the year before. It accounted for about 23% of global exports. The reversal from record exports to a total ban happened overnight.

Beijing's motive is domestic. Chinese copper smelters need acid to operate. With Hormuz restricting sulphur inflows, China chose to keep its acid at home. A rational decision for China. Every mine that depended on Chinese supply lost access overnight.

Observation: China exported 4.65 million tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2025. In mid-2026, it exports zero.
Interpretation: The Hormuz closure created a sulphur shortage. China's ban turned it into an acid shortage. Two forces hit the same supply chain within six weeks.

Chile is the world's largest copper producer. It also imports more sulphuric acid than any country on earth. Four million tonnes a year. About 37% of that came from China.

Patricia Barreto, an analyst at S&P Global, put it plainly. Replacing Chinese volumes is not a pricing problem, she said. It is a physical availability problem. Transport costs and safety rules make sulphuric acid a regional market. You cannot simply bid higher and have it arrive from across the world.

The numbers already show the damage. Chile's copper output fell 13.8% year over year in April. That followed a 9% drop in March. Goldman Sachs estimates 200,000 tonnes of Chilean production are at risk. That estimate holds if the acid ban runs through year-end.

The Democratic Republic of Congo faces the same bind. The DRC relies on imported acid to extract copper from its ore. Acid prices in the mining hub of Kolwezi have reached $700 per tonne. Goldman estimates DRC mines hold two to three months of inventory. If delays stretch past midsummer, the country could lose 125,000 tonnes of production this year.

Add those up across the system. Morgan Stanley forecasts a 600,000-tonne copper deficit in 2026. That would be the largest in over 20 years.

Observation: Chile's April copper output dropped 13.8%. DRC acid inventories cover two to three months at current rates.
Interpretation: The acid shortage is already showing up in production data. Mines that cannot get acid cannot produce copper, no matter what copper costs.

These forces are not going away in a week. The Hormuz Strait remains restricted. China's ban runs through the end of 2026 at minimum. Sulphur, as a byproduct, cannot be ramped up by spending more money on it. These are structural conditions, not market moods.

The signals to watch are monthly production data from Chile and the DRC. If Chilean output keeps falling through summer, the supply gap widens. In the DRC, force majeure is the threshold to monitor. Force majeure is the legal term for when a mine halts production because conditions beyond its control make operations impossible. If DRC mines reach that point as acid runs out, additional tonnage drops off the market.

Copper did not spike on hype. It spiked because a chemical nobody tracks became unavailable in two places at once. Follow the chain. A strait closes in the Persian Gulf. Sulphur stops moving. Acid runs short. A copper mine in Chile cuts production. The price on your portfolio screen moves. That chain is the force worth tracking.

Two events, six weeks apart, severed most of the world's flexible sulphuric acid supply. Copper mines in Chile and the DRC are already losing output. Until acid flows resume, the structural pressure on copper holds.

Until next time,
The Navigator