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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Jul 1, 2026

How Buybacks Reshape S&P 500 Earnings

Revenue grew 11.3%. The per-share figure grew 27.7%.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2026

How Buybacks Reshape S&P 500 Earnings

Revenue grew 11.3%. The per-share figure grew 27.7%.

S&P 500 earnings per share grew 27.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Revenue grew 11.3%. Same companies. Same quarter.

EPS grew at nearly two and a half times the rate of sales. The business did not grow that fast. The per-share number did.

The difference is not magic. It is arithmetic. And the arithmetic has a name.

The Big Idea

EPS is a fraction. Total earnings on top, share count on the bottom. S&P 500 firms spent $1 trillion shrinking that bottom last year, and half came from 20 companies. The index's reported growth depends on arithmetic that is fast, concentrated, and can pause in a single quarter.

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The Denominator Trick

Builders FirstSource is a building materials company. Since August 2021, it has retired 49.7% of its shares. Half the shares, gone. If the company earned the same profit, its EPS would nearly double. That is how the fraction works.

Scale that across the full index. Buyback data from S&P Dow Jones Indices runs two quarters behind earnings reports. Q3 2025 is the latest available. In that quarter, 312 companies shrank their share count. Only 160 grew theirs. And 17.1% of all S&P 500 firms cut by 4% or more. That alone boosts their EPS by at least 4%. No extra revenue required.

Total corporate profits did grow 12.8%. The business growth is real. But EPS grew 27.7%. Most of that gap is the denominator shrinking. One-time paper gains at Alphabet, Amazon, and Netflix widen it further.

Observation: 17.1% of S&P 500 companies cut share counts by 4% or more in Q3 2025.
Interpretation: Nearly one in five firms got a free EPS boost from arithmetic alone, with no change in business performance.

Who Is Doing the Buying

S&P 500 buybacks hit $1 trillion in 2025. That was an all-time high. Birinyi Associates, a market research firm, puts authorized 2026 repurchases on pace for $1.55 trillion. The money is large and growing.

But it is not spread evenly. In Q3 2025, the top 20 companies held 49.5% of all buyback spending. The top four, Apple, Meta, Alphabet, and NVIDIA, spent 27%. Before COVID, the top-20 share averaged 44.5%. It has climbed steadily since.

Wall Street Horizon, a market data firm, counted 34 new buyback announcements in Q3 2025. That is the fewest in its ten years of tracking. Fewer firms are writing bigger checks. The EPS support looks broad at the index level. Underneath, it rests on a narrow base.

Observation: Half of all S&P 500 buyback dollars come from just 20 companies.
Interpretation: The denominator trick is concentrated. A small group of firms does most of the work on the index's per-share number.

What Happens When It Pauses

In Q2 2025, tariff uncertainty hit. Buybacks dropped 20.1% in a single quarter. They fell from a record $293.5 billion to $234.6 billion. The share of companies buying back stock fell nine points, from 76.8% to 67.6%. The denominator trick paused.

At the same time, the market punishes EPS misses harder than usual. Companies missing Q1 2026 estimates fell 4.9% on average, according to FactSet. The five-year average penalty is 2.9%. Nearly double. Per-share numbers depend on a mechanism that has already paused once. The penalty for missing those numbers is rising.

Observation: S&P 500 buybacks fell 20.1% in Q2 2025 when tariff uncertainty rose.
Interpretation: The denominator trick can pause in a single quarter. When it does, per-share growth loses a key support while the market prices in perfection.

Quick Hits

  • S&P 500 Q1 2026: EPS grew 27.7%, revenue grew 11.3%, total profits grew 12.8%.

  • S&P 500 buybacks reached an all-time high of $1 trillion in 2025.

  • 312 S&P 500 companies reduced share counts in Q3 2025 while only 160 increased them.

  • 17.1% of S&P 500 firms cut share counts by 4% or more, adding at least 4% to their EPS from arithmetic alone.

  • The top 20 firms hold 49.5% of all buyback spending, with the top four alone holding 27%.

  • Only 34 companies announced new buybacks in Q3 2025, a 10-year low.

  • Companies missing Q1 2026 EPS estimates fell 4.9%, nearly double the five-year average of 2.9%.

What This Means When You Read Earnings

When an earnings headline shows double-digit EPS growth, two questions matter. What did revenue do? And what happened to the share count? If EPS grew at twice the rate of sales, the denominator is doing work.

The broader signal worth tracking is buyback participation. Right now, fewer companies are buying back shares. The ones that do are spending more. If those firms pull back, per-share growth drops. The underlying business can stay exactly the same.

None of this means the earnings are fake. Profits grew 12.8%. But 27.7% is not 12.8%. The fraction has two parts, and both matter.

The Map So Far

EPS growth is real but runs well ahead of business growth. The gap comes from a shrinking denominator, concentrated in a small number of firms. That concentration is the structural fact worth watching.

Until next time,
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