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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Jul 7, 2026

How Five Firms Got Your 401(K)

Congress built the funnel. Nobody turned it off.

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Elon Musk’s Projection: $100 to $7.6 Million?

Can he be right?

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Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

How Five Firms Got Your 401(K)

Congress built the funnel. Nobody turned it off.

Five trillion dollars sits in target-date funds inside American retirement accounts. Most of that money arrived without anyone picking it.

Workers got enrolled. A default was set. Almost nobody changed it. That is not a glitch. It is the system working as designed.

The Big Idea

A 2006 law gave employers legal cover to default workers into target-date funds. SECURE 2.0, signed in December 2022, made auto-enrollment mandatory for new plans starting in 2025. Money now flows from paychecks into a handful of nearly identical strategies run by five firms. The machine was built to produce this outcome.

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The Policy Gear

Congress built the on-ramp. The Pension Protection Act of 2006 created a Qualified Default Investment Alternative, or QDIA. That is the fund your money goes into if you never make a choice. The law gave plan sponsors fiduciary safe harbor for using one. Pick an approved default and get shielded from lawsuits. Target-date funds were an approved default.

Then Congress widened the on-ramp. SECURE 2.0 took effect in 2025. It requires most new 401(k) plans to auto-enroll workers. The starting contribution must be at least 3% of pay. It rises by 1% each year until it hits 10%. The law does not suggest defaults. It requires them.

Observation: SECURE 2.0 mandates automatic enrollment with escalating contributions for most new plans starting in 2025.
Interpretation: Every new plan feeds the same funnel by law, with rising contributions built into the structure.

The Funnel

Follow the money from paycheck to portfolio. Among plans that designate a default fund, 98% chose a target-date fund. The Plan Sponsor Council of America found that 84% of participants use one. Vanguard's own research matches that figure. And 71% of those participants hold their entire account in that single fund.

The pipe is narrow at the other end too. Five firms collect roughly 80% of all target-date assets, according to Morningstar's 2026 report. Vanguard alone holds nearly $1.8 trillion. Fidelity holds $693 billion. BlackRock holds $611 billion. Vanguard's assets grew $310 billion in 2025.

Americans held $10.1 trillion in 401(k) plans at year-end 2025, according to the Investment Company Institute. Target-date funds account for roughly half. Half of all 401(k) money sits in strategies most holders never actively chose.

Observation: Five firms control 80% of $5.2 trillion in target-date assets. 71% of participants hold their entire balance in one fund.
Interpretation: The default mechanism moves money into a very small number of funds run by a very small number of firms.

The Same Bet

Target-date funds adjust their stock and bond mix based on when the worker plans to retire. That path is called a glide path. For younger savers, the median stock allocation hit 93% by year-end 2025. A decade earlier, it was 89%.

In March 2026, BlackRock announced it would push equity allocations to 99%. That applies to funds for workers 30 or more years from retirement. No other major provider allocates that high.

As starting allocations rise, glide paths look more alike across firms. The money is not just concentrated in a few providers. It is concentrated in a single shape of portfolio.

Observation: The median equity allocation for young savers hit 93%, and BlackRock is moving to 99%.
Interpretation: Millions of retirement accounts are converging on the same risk profile, whether the holders chose it or not.

The Incentive Lock

Every actor in the system benefits from keeping it this way. Sponsors get lawsuit protection from the QDIA safe harbor. Workers get a reasonable portfolio with zero effort. Fund managers collected about $580 million more in revenue in 2025. The average fee dropped to 0.27%. Volume overwhelms margin.

Smaller managers get squeezed. Chris Brown of Sway Research reported that smaller firms struggle to win plan business. The largest managers bundle their funds with the administration systems that run the plan itself. A plan sponsor can get the default fund and the back office from one provider. Smaller firms cannot match that package. No actor has a reason to change the setting. The machine reinforces itself.

Observation: Target-date fund revenue grew $580 million in 2025 while the average fee fell to 0.27%.
Interpretation: Every actor in the system is rewarded for leaving the default in place, so no one changes it.

Quick Hits

  • Target-date fund assets reached $5.2 trillion at the end of 2025, a 21% jump in one year.

  • The industry has grown 11.9% annualized over the past decade.

  • SECURE 2.0 requires new plans to auto-enroll workers starting at 3% with annual 1% increases.

  • Lower-cost pooled funds called collective investment trusts now hold 54% of target-date assets, overtaking mutual funds.

  • Average target-date fund fees fell to 0.27% in 2025, down from 0.55% in 2015.

  • Vanguard controls 36.9% of all assets in target-date mutual funds and CITs.

  • 401(k) plans held $10.1 trillion at year-end 2025. Target-date funds account for roughly half.

What This Means for Target-Date Holders

If you have a 401(k), there is a good chance your money sits in one of these funds. You may have chosen it. You may not have. Either way, the forces acting on your account are worth knowing.

The first force is inflow. SECURE 2.0 pushes more money in each year. New plans launch with mandatory enrollment and rising contribution rates. The capital keeps coming.

The second force is convergence. The major providers are raising stock allocations for younger workers. The gap between one firm's glide path and another's is shrinking. The spread of risk across providers is narrower than it looks.

The third force is fee compression. Fees keep falling. But that means only the largest managers can run these funds at a profit. The competitive field narrows. The concentration deepens.

The signal to watch is whether SECURE 2.0's mandatory enrollment speeds up inflows beyond what 2025 delivered. If it does, the funnel tightens further.

The Map So Far

Congress built the machine. Every actor's incentives keep it running. Half of all 401(k) money now sits in a handful of nearly identical strategies. Most holders never chose them. The concentration is not slowing. It is accelerating by design.

Until next time,
The Navigator

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