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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Sep 9, 2026

Nickel and Fertilizer Share One Problem

The dominant U.S. producer lost $273 million last quarter.

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Trump’s Venezuela reset revealed

President Trump secured a deal to seize control over a colossal new source of oil.

According to reports, we’re talking about 65 billion barrels spread across 17 Venezuelan oil fields.

For comparison, the United States currently has roughly 46 billion barrels of proven domestic oil.

Combined, that would put Washington in control of around 7% of all proven reserves on the planet.

The media are treating this as a deal to lower gas prices, rebuild Venezuela and refill America’s depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

But, of course, they’ve missed the real story.

Because I don’t believe this is just about oil.

It’s about the U.S. dollar.

The last time America reset its monetary system, in 1974, oil sat at the very heart of it.

A secret pact with Saudi Arabia created the petrodollar – and changed the financial destiny of an entire generation.

Over the next 50 years, America created, on average, more than a thousand new millionaires every day.

Yet millions of ordinary workers and savers – who were never told that the rules of money had changed – watched their wages fall behind and their savings steadily hollowed out.

Now, assuming the deal is accurate as reported, Trump has secured a 35% U.S. government stake in the company controlling these Venezuelan fields…

Guaranteed access to 20% of its oil at production cost, with first refusal on the remaining 80%…

And concessions lasting an entire century.

Perhaps most revealingly, the agreement is pushing Chinese operators out of strategic Venezuelan oil fields.

That’s because Venezuela isn’t an isolated oil deal.

I believe it’s part of a much larger plan for Trump to reset America’s monetary system.

A reset that connects everything from the government’s billion-dollar stakes in obscure mining companies…

To the reopening of retired nuclear facilities and Trump's obsession with invading Greenland and annexing Canada.

And if I’m right, the consequences won’t stop at the gas pump.

This could affect the purchasing power of the money you’ve saved…

The value of the assets inside your investment portfolio…

And which companies receive the first flood of capital as Trump’s New Dollar takes hold.

Strung together by a flurry of executive orders and a 13-nation treaty signed inside the State Department, most folks have no idea this is happening – let alone how to prepare for it.

That’s why, in my new investigation, I reveal how Venezuela fits into Trump’s secret dollar reset…

Why this controversial initiative could be exposed to the world as soon as December…

The five mission-critical companies I believe sit at the center of the new monetary system…

And the name and ticker of my No. 1 move to make today.

Go here to watch it now

Trump’s Venezuela reset revealed

Good investing,

Porter Stansberry

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Nickel and Fertilizer Share One Problem

The dominant U.S. producer lost $273 million last quarter.

On August 17, a cargo ship docked at the Port of New Orleans. It carried 54,000 tons of phosphate fertilizer from Morocco. The shipment entered duty-free under a presidential emergency declaration signed June 29.

Five years ago, the U.S. imposed a 19.97% tariff on that same Moroccan producer. The company that requested the tariff was Mosaic, the dominant U.S. phosphate maker. Mosaic now runs its largest plant at 40% capacity. It lost $273 million in Q2.

The reason is one chemical.

The Big Idea

Sulfuric acid is the reagent that turns phosphate rock into fertilizer. Without it, the rock stays rock. Three supply shocks hit the global sulfur market at once in 2026. That single chokepoint links a Persian Gulf conflict to the price of growing corn in Iowa.

Wall Street is calling it the "Warsh Shock." Here's how to profit from it…

Wall Street is calling it the "Warsh Shock." Here's how to profit from it…

Nearly half of the world's biggest money allocators are scrambling to reposition for what they expect to be the most volatile market in years.

Larry Benedict isn't scrambling. He's seen this before.

He says the Warsh Shock is setting up the most predictable wealth-building window he's seen in 20 years… and there's one ticker right at the center of it.

Click here to see how Larry is playing it

The Chokepoint

Mosaic controls 74% of U.S. phosphate fertilizer production. It needs sulfuric acid to convert raw phosphate rock into the products farmers buy. The acid supply collapsed.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 44% of the world's seaborne sulfur. U.S.-Iran hostilities disrupted the strait in early 2026. Daily vessel transits fell from 84 to 6. Then China banned all sulfuric acid exports in May. Russia banned sulfur exports through year-end. Three supply lines failed in the same season.

Sulfur spot prices broke $1,000 per ton. That is up more than 300% since August 2025. Half of global sulfuric acid goes into fertilizer. Roughly 44% of the sulfur for that acid moved through the Persian Gulf before the disruption.

Mosaic's Bartow, Florida plant now runs at 40% capacity. Its Brazilian acid inventory runs out by September 2026.

Observation: Three simultaneous disruptions removed most globally traded sulfur from the market within six months.
Interpretation: No single diplomatic resolution restores the supply. Three independent sources failed at once. The shortage is structural, not episodic.

The Pattern

This is not the first industry the sulfur squeeze broke. It already broke Indonesian nickel.

Indonesia sources 75% to 80% of its sulfur from the Middle East. When prices doubled, several nickel processors cut output by at least 10%. These plants use sulfuric acid to convert nickel ore into battery-grade material.

The International Nickel Study Group had forecast a 261,000 metric ton surplus for 2026. After the cuts, it revised to a 32,000 metric ton deficit. That is the first projected nickel shortfall in five years.

Same chemical. Same upstream cause. Different industry. Now the same force is hitting phosphate.

Observation: Indonesian nickel processors cut output by 10% from the same sulfuric acid shortage, months before U.S. phosphate curtailments began.
Interpretation: Sulfuric acid scarcity cascades across industries. Nickel was the early signal. Phosphate is the second transmission.

The Patch and Its Limits

The emergency order opened the door for OCP, Morocco's state phosphate company. But the first cargo was triple superphosphate, called TSP. Most American farmers use DAP or MAP. Those stand for diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate. One ship of the less common product does not fill the gap.

The duty suspension lasts eight months. It expires in February 2027. Morocco holds about 70% of the world's phosphate rock reserves. The U.S. replaced dependence on one struggling domestic producer with dependence on one foreign supplier.

A longer-term fix exists on paper. CHS Inc. and OCP announced a $450 million joint venture. The plan is a new phosphate plant in Louisiana. It would be the first built in the U.S. since 1984. It will not produce for years. U.S. phosphate output has fallen by more than half since 1995. Domestic reserves could run out within 40 years.

Observation: No new domestic capacity can come online before the duty suspension expires in February 2027.
Interpretation: The plant will not break ground in time. Mosaic's acid supply will not recover by then. Every fix on the table is temporary.

Quick Hits

  • Sulfur spot prices have risen more than 300% since August 2025, exceeding $1,000 per ton.

  • Mosaic's Bartow, Florida plant runs at 40% capacity. Its Brazilian acid supply runs out by September 2026.

  • China banned all sulfuric acid exports in May 2026. Russia banned sulfur exports through year-end.

  • Global nickel flipped from a projected 261,000 metric ton surplus to a 32,000 metric ton deficit for 2026.

  • DAP fertilizer averaged $917 per ton in mid-August. MAP averaged $960.

  • The CHS-OCP plant in Louisiana would be the first U.S. phosphate facility built since 1984.

What the Sulfur Shortage Tells Us

Three forces press on fertilizer prices at once. Sulfur is scarce. The dominant U.S. producer is curtailed. The only relief valve, Moroccan imports, reopened under a temporary order expiring in February.

Here are the signals worth tracking. First, sulfur spot prices. They show whether the Hormuz disruption is easing or tightening. Second, Mosaic's acid inventory at its Brazilian plants. The company says it runs dry by September 2026. If those operations shut down, DAP and MAP prices lose another source of supply. Third, the February 2027 expiration date. That is the deadline for any structural fix to take hold.

DAP and MAP already sit near $917 to $960 per ton. Fall planting decisions carry these costs now.

The Map So Far

Sulfuric acid transmits a Persian Gulf conflict into American fertilizer costs. The same shortage already flipped global nickel from surplus to deficit. Fifty-four thousand tons of phosphate sit at the Port of New Orleans. Every fix behind that cargo expires before the structure changes.

Until next time,
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