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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Aug 18, 2026

One Canal, Two Crises, Rising Costs

A single auction bid hit 84 times the six-month median.

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Every dollar you own is being replaced

Something strange is happening to your money.

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President Trump is replacing the U.S. dollar.

Not with crypto. Not with a digital currency. Something far bigger than that – and it's already been signed and sealed in the back rooms of D.C., ready to be issued by the U.S. Treasury.

Bypassing every legal and political channel under the guise of "national security," Trump has enacted this total money reset using a landmark executive order (1421).
Whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, whether you support this new money or not, it doesn't matter.

Soon, every U.S. citizen will be forced to use Trump's New Dollar to fill their gas tank, buy groceries, and pay medical bills.

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Detailing three important steps you can take today to prepare – including the name of a core band of assets connected to Trump’s initiative that could surge as a result.

As you’ll see in my briefing, the last time America reset its money like this – under Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s – it created one of the greatest wealth divides in the history of our nation.

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Which side will you be on?

Every dollar you own is being replaced

Good investing,
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PS. If you’re wondering what Trump’s new money will look like, when it will be issued, what it means for your investments – all of those questions are answered in my briefing.

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

One Canal, Two Crises, Rising Costs

A single auction bid hit 84 times the six-month median.

An empty gas tanker paid $4.6 million on August 14 to skip the line at the Panama Canal. The ship was a liquefied petroleum gas carrier called G. Arete. It did not pay that fee to use the canal. It paid to use the canal sooner. The normal toll for a large vessel runs into the hundreds of thousands. This $4.6 million was on top of that.

Six months ago, the median price for that privilege was $55,000. That is an 84-fold increase. It is the output of a specific machine. That machine is under stress from two directions.

The Big Idea

The Panama Canal has two cost layers. One is a fixed toll set by the Canal Authority. The other is a market-driven auction for scarce transit slots, with no price ceiling. The toll barely moves. The auction moves with supply and demand. When two forces squeeze the same channel, the auction price becomes the system's pressure gauge.

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How the Pricing Works

Every ship that crosses the canal pays a toll. For a large container vessel, that toll runs roughly $800,000 or more. It is published. It changes slowly.

On top of the toll, the Canal Authority sells a limited number of booking slots each day. These guarantee a crossing date. When demand exceeds supply, leftover slots go to a sealed-bid auction. The highest bidder wins. There is no cap.

Between October 2025 and February 2026, the median winning bid was about $55,000. By August, a single bid hit $4.6 million. That is 84 times the baseline. The toll stayed roughly the same. The auction absorbed all the pressure.

Observation: Auction bids jumped from a $55,000 median to $4.6 million in six months.
Interpretation: The toll is a fixed instrument. The auction is the only moving part. All the stress in the system shows up there.

The Demand Surge

The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil and gas. It normally handles about 73 commercial transits per day. In late February, U.S.-Iran military conflict closed the strait to commercial shipping. On August 9, one ship passed through. Energy carriers that used to transit the Persian Gulf now reroute through Panama.

Canal transits climbed 16% year over year. The canal runs 36 to 38 vessels per day. Maximum capacity is roughly 40. Demand now presses against the canal's physical ceiling.

Observation: Canal transits are up 16% year over year. The canal runs at 36 to 38 of roughly 40 maximum daily slots.
Interpretation: Rerouted Hormuz traffic has filled the canal to its physical ceiling.

The Capacity Squeeze

El Niño is a Pacific warming pattern. It shifts rainfall away from Central America. The canal's locks run on freshwater from Gatun Lake, the reservoir that feeds the entire system. In February, the lake was near overflow at about 89 feet. By August it had fallen to 84 feet. NOAA puts the chance of a very strong El Niño above 90%.

As the lake drops, the Canal Authority cuts the maximum draft. Draft is how deep a loaded ship sits in the water. Five cuts came in nine weeks. The limit fell from 50 feet on July 1 to 47.5 feet on September 3. Each cut forces ships to carry lighter loads. Fewer goods move per crossing. The same number of ships still pass through.

One force pushes more ships in. The other shrinks what each ship can carry.

Observation: Five draft cuts in nine weeks reduced the limit from 50 feet to 47.5 feet while daily transits held near maximum.
Interpretation: The system is losing throughput without cutting a single transit. The draft restrictions are an invisible squeeze.

Where the Cost Goes

The canal's pricing pressure does not stay in the canal. Carriers pass it downstream.

CMA CGM is one of the world's largest container lines. It announced a $500 per container surcharge starting September 10. That is up from $320 in July. The surcharge applies to cargo for the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.

The average rate from Shanghai to New York rose 10% to $8,706 per container as of August 14. The route matters because the alternative is costly. A gas shipment from the U.S. Gulf Coast reaches Asia in about 26 days through Panama. Around the Cape of Good Hope, the same trip takes 44 days. That 18-day gap is why ships pay.

Observation: Shanghai-to-New York spot rates hit $8,706 per container. Carrier surcharges are still climbing.
Interpretation: The canal's squeeze already reaches shipping costs between Asia and the East Coast.

Quick Hits

  • An empty gas tanker paid a record $4.6 million for priority transit on August 14.

  • The auction median was $55,000 between October 2025 and February 2026. The record bid is 84 times that.

  • Canal transits rose 16% year over year after the Strait of Hormuz closed in late February.

  • The canal runs 36 to 38 daily transits against a maximum of roughly 40.

  • The Canal Authority cut maximum draft five times in nine weeks, from 50 feet to 47.5 feet.

  • Gatun Lake dropped from near 89 feet in February to 84 feet in August.

  • CMA CGM will apply a $500 per container surcharge on U.S.-bound cargo starting September 10.

What the Auction Price Is Telling Us

The $4.6 million bid is not a fluke. It is the output of a system with one fixed price and one free price. Two forces hit that system at the same time.

The signal to watch is Gatun Lake. Every foot it drops triggers another draft cut. Every draft cut means lighter loads per ship. In July, Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez Morales put the probability of a severe El Niño event at 81%. In April, that figure was 25%. If transit slots get cut, fewer reach the auction. Fewer slots mean higher bids.

The demand side shows no sign of easing. The Strait of Hormuz saw one commercial transit on August 9. Until that changes, rerouted energy traffic keeps flowing through Panama. In 2023, a drought alone pushed the draft limit to 44 feet and cut daily transits into the 20s. This time, a war and a drought act on the same channel.

Both forces are still pressing on the same point.

The Map So Far

Two forces are compressing the Panama Canal. One floods it with rerouted traffic. The other drains the water that runs the locks. The auction, the only uncapped price in the system, is showing the strain.

Until next time,
The Navigator

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