Logo
Home
All Publications
SUBSCRIBE
Logo
SUBSCRIBE
Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Sep 26, 2026

The 15x Gap in Rare Earth Prices

91% of refining, 94% of finished output. The funnel only narrows.

Your browser does not support the audio element.

The Dollar’s Last Dance

Editor's Note: More than 15 years ago, Porter Stansberry's warning about the destruction of the dollar went viral. In his critical new documentary he explains why it came true – and reveals the radical reset of America's money he believes could finally reverse our decline.

If you have savings in the bank or a stock portfolio, make time to watch it today.

I don’t know about you, but it feels to me like our country is dying.

The virtues that built this nation – hard work, thrift, personal responsibility, and sacrifice – have been turned upside down.

The truth is, I barely recognize our country anymore.

Our inner cities have murder rates that would shame a failed state in the Third World.

A generation of adult men are still living in their childhood bedrooms, unable to even imagine starting a family.

More than a million young women are selling themselves to strangers on the internet – and calling it empowerment.

Addiction is everywhere: Gambling. Opioids. Pornography. Debt. All spreading through every zip code in America.

And the price of a decent life – healthy food, a nice car, a good home – has simply become too steep for most hard working Americans to afford.

An American Tragedy

If you're like me, you've watched all of this unfold and asked yourself one simple question:

What the hell is going on?

Well, more than 15 years ago, I warned that America was heading toward this exact kind of social breakdown.

Today, I want to show you why that warning came true…

And, more importantly, what I believe comes next.

But first, we have to understand what brought us here.

The right blames the collapse of the family and the church. The left blames capitalism, racism, and inequality. The TV news blames social media and our failing schools.

But what they’re all describing is the smoke, not the fire.

Because I believe there’s a single cause underneath all of it – one unseen, unspoken force that ties together all the madness, the crime, the despair, and the decay.

Sociologists have a name for it. But almost no economist on Earth really understands it.

That word is anomie – the breakdown of a society's moral order.

It’s the moment when everything stops making sense, when virtue stops being rewarded, and an entire nation quietly stops believing in the future.

Sound familiar?

But anomie is not a cultural disease. It’s a monetary one.

The Dollar’s Last Dance

When a nation’s money becomes worthless… when it intentionally debases its currency… it doesn't just rob its savers, it breaks the invisible contract that holds civilization together.

It breaks the sacred moral promise that hard work, thrift, and sacrifice today will be worth something tomorrow.

Destroy that promise and you destroy the reason to behave and to believe in the future.

It happened in Rome, as emperors clipped the silver from the denarius – and birth rates collapsed, crime soared, and the spectacles grew more depraved by the decade.

It happened in Weimar Germany, as the mark was printed into confetti – and Berlin became the vice capital of Europe almost overnight.

While respectable families sold their furniture, speculators made fortunes by leveraging the cheap money.

Debased money and a debased society are not two stories – they are one story. And, sadly, it is now America’s story.

Because when money stops holding its value, time itself stops feeling valuable. Life feels worthless.

Why work? Why save? Why invest for the future? Why sacrifice for your family or your country – when everything around you says sacrifice is for suckers, and the game is rigged for the people standing next to the money printer?

The young men trapped in their bedrooms understand this, even if they can't articulate it.

So do the workers who quit their jobs to collect a welfare check… the couples who never marry or have kids… the women degrading themselves on OnlyFans… and the millions numbing themselves one scroll and one online bet at a time.

They’re not lazy. They’re not stupid. They are responding – quite rationally – to a currency and a government that has failed them.

The Dollar’s Last Dance

Ever since America's money was untethered from anything real, the dollar has lost more than 80% of its purchasing power.

And in that time the moral fabric of this country has unraveled in lockstep.

That’s not a coincidence, that’s cause and effect.

If you want to rebuild America's culture, you must first rebuild America's money.

I know how most people feel about all of this. They’re lost. And they've given up.

They look at the direction we're heading and see an inevitable, unstoppable slide – into moral decay, into financial ruin, into a country that makes them afraid for their children and grandchildren.

They've stopped expecting anyone to fix it. Maybe you have, too.

I understand that feeling, but I'm here to tell you it’s wrong.

Trump’s Reset

Right now, something is in motion that could reverse this destructive slide – the first serious effort in half a century to repair the broken heart of the American monetary system.

I believe President Trump is attempting to replace the U.S. Dollar.

I don't know if it will work. I don't know if it will come in time.

But I believe the Trump administration is moving heaven and earth to make it happen – mobilizing trillions of dollars, and redrawing the entire architecture of American money in the process.
There was no debate in Congress. No vote. And no public announcement.
Yet I’d like to show you why I believe this reset is already underway.

And potentially as soon as this coming December, Trump’s monetary reset could be announced – in all but name – to a gathering of world leaders in Miami.

This has nothing to do with CBDCs, Bitcoin, crypto, or digital money.

But soon, every American could be using Trump’s New Dollar to pay for groceries, gas, medical bills and practically everything else – whether they support it or not.

This controversial monetary system is, in my view, already sending enormous waves of capital into a narrow group of companies and assets – which could create substantial returns for those already in position.

The White House calls the initiative behind it a “transformative force for our long-term prosperity.”

And Fortune says what’s unfolding is “the biggest change to the world’s relationship with the dollar” in a generation.

Yet most Americans have no idea it is happening – and are not prepared for it.

And that could be very dangerous – because the last time America reset its money, 52 years ago, it divided the country in two.

In the decades that followed, by some estimates America created more than a thousand new millionaires every day.

The greatest fortunes went to those who understood the new rules – and owned the assets the new monetary system rewarded.

But, sadly, countless families were left behind.

They worked hard. They lived within their means. They carefully put money aside for the future.

Yet still, they watched their wages stagnate, their savings steadily hollowed out, and the American Dream move further beyond their reach.

Not because they made foolish decisions. But because nobody told them the rules of money had changed.

And now, I believe that same dividing line is being drawn again.

Which side your family ends up on may depend on what you do with the information in my new documentary.

I’ve produced it to explain exactly what Trump’s New Dollar could mean for your savings, your portfolio, and your family’s financial future…

To reveal the companies I believe could benefit the most as this new monetary order takes hold…

And to give you the name and ticker of my No. 1 move to make right now.

Watch it today.

Good Investing,

Porter Stansberry

Saturday, September 26, 2026

The 15x Gap in Rare Earth Prices

91% of refining, 94% of finished output. The funnel only narrows.

Mountain Pass, California, pulled roughly 50,000 metric tons of rare earth ore out of the ground last year. Close to a tenth of global supply. The U.S. still cannot turn most of it into finished magnets.

The public story is about mines. New deposits. New permits. New dirt. But the problem was never underground. It sits in the factory stages between raw ore and a finished magnet. Those stages belong almost entirely to China.

On November 10, a suspended set of Chinese export controls either lapses or snaps into force. The framework is written. It is waiting.

The Big Idea

The rare earth bottleneck is not a mining problem. It is a factory problem. Three stages sit between ore and a magnet: separation, alloying, and sintering. China controls over 90% of all three, and no Western facility can close that gap before November 10.

In the 1970s, three oil giants found it. They buried it to protect oil.

Sixty years later, one company finally cracked it.

Google just signed a 15-year deal. The biggest names in tech are moving in fast.

❝

A new Exxon is rising, and Wall Street is still pricing it like a sleepy little energy stock.

A new Exxon is rising

That window does not stay open once the crowd wakes up.

SHOW ME THE NEXT EXXON →

The Pipeline Narrows

Rare earth magnets go into every EV motor, every guided missile, every wind turbine. The supply chain that makes them has three stages. Each one concentrates more control in fewer hands.

The International Energy Agency reported the numbers in April. China accounts for 60% of rare earth mining. That sounds manageable. But China refines 91% of the output. And China produces 94% of finished sintered magnets.

Think of it as a funnel. The wide end is mining. Mountain Pass proves the West can dig. But the funnel narrows fast. By the time ore becomes a magnet, the pipeline runs almost entirely through China.

Observation: China's share rises from 60% at the mine to 94% at the finished magnet.
Interpretation: Mining gains do not reduce dependence. The bottleneck sits downstream, in factory stages the West has not built.

What One Kilogram per Week Looks Like

Separation is the first factory stage. It pulls individual elements apart from mixed ore. The process runs through hundreds of mixer-settler stages. Each batch takes four to fifteen weeks. A single commercial-scale circuit costs $200 million to $500 million. This is a physical constraint, not a funding gap. Money alone does not solve it fast.

The price tells you the fracture is already real. Dysprosium oxide is a heavy rare earth critical for high-performance magnets. It trades at $212 per kilogram in China. In North America, the same material costs up to $3,250. Fifteen to one for the same element. The market has already split in two.

Now look at what the West has built. MP Materials runs the Independence facility in Texas. Installed capacity is 1,000 tonnes of magnets per year. As of June 2026, the plant was still in commissioning and customer qualification per its SEC filings.

Energy Fuels, a rare earths processor in Utah, produces about one kilogram of terbium oxide per week at pilot scale. One kilogram. Global terbium production runs 700 to 800 tonnes per year. Almost all of it comes from China.

Hold that number. One kilogram per week. That is where Western heavy rare earth supply stands today.

Observation: The best Western magnet facility is still qualifying product. The best heavy rare earth pilot produces one kilogram of terbium per week.
Interpretation: The gap between Western capacity and global demand is measured in years, not months.

The Clock

China's baseline export controls have been in force since April 2025. They require licenses for seven heavy rare earths and for magnets containing terbium or dysprosium. Those never went away.

The second wave is what matters now. Written in October 2025 and suspended in November 2025, these rules reach beyond China's borders. The 0.1% rule applies globally. Any company exporting magnets with trace Chinese-origin rare earths would need Chinese government approval. That suspension expires November 10.

The Pentagon is not waiting. The Defence Department bought $400 million in MP Materials stock. It became the company's largest shareholder. It signed a ten-year deal to buy 100% of the magnets from MP's planned 10X facility. That facility begins commissioning in 2028. Combined with Independence, total U.S. capacity would reach about 10,000 tonnes per year. That is roughly 3–5% of global production.

But 2028 is not 2026. The U.S. defence stockpile holds enough rare earth magnet material for roughly two months at wartime demand. Magnet shipments from China to the U.S. averaged 479 tonnes per month in early 2026. That is 20% below pre-2025 levels. The flow is thinning before the cliff arrives.

Observation: Suspended extraterritorial controls activate November 10. The earliest major U.S. capacity expansion commissions in 2028.
Interpretation: A structural gap sits between when controls could bite and when Western capacity could absorb the loss.

Quick Hits

  • China holds 60% of rare earth mining, 91% of refining, and 94% of finished magnet output.

  • Dysprosium oxide costs $212/kg in China and up to $3,250/kg in North America.

  • MP Materials has 1,000 tonnes of annual magnet capacity and is still qualifying product.

  • Energy Fuels produces about one kilogram of terbium oxide per week at pilot scale.

  • China's suspended extraterritorial export controls activate November 10, 2026.

  • The Pentagon invested $400 million in MP Materials with a ten-year magnet offtake deal.

  • The U.S. defence rare earth stockpile covers roughly two months at wartime demand.

What November 10 Means for the Supply Chain

Three forces shape this system. The physical constraint: separation and sintering take years to build and billions to fund. The policy clock: November 10 is a firm date, and the rules behind it are already written. The capital response: government money is flowing, but the facilities it builds will not produce at scale until 2028 or later.

The signal to watch is whether China extends the suspension. If it does, the structural gap remains but pressure eases for another cycle. If it does not, the 0.1% rule activates. That would touch not just Chinese exports but any supply chain worldwide that uses Chinese-origin material. Since 94% of finished magnets come from China, that covers nearly everything.

Two-tier pricing already tells you the market sees this coming. A fifteen-to-one price gap for the same element is not a temporary distortion. Watch whether that gap widens or narrows as November approaches. It will tell you more than any headline.

The Map So Far

The dirt is in the ground at Mountain Pass. The machines to turn it into magnets are not ready. November 10 is the date on the clock.

Until next time,
The Navigator

Subscribe to
The Navigator

Check out my other publications

VIEW ALL

Home

All Publications

Privacy Policy

Terms of Use

© 2026 The Navigator. All rights reserved.