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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Jul 14, 2026

The Clock Running on Real Estate Debt

Two years of silence are ending all at once.

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Every dollar you own is being replaced

Something strange is happening to your money.

It wasn't voted on. It wasn't debated in the Senate. And most Americans have no idea it's even taking place but…

President Trump is replacing the U.S. dollar.

Not with crypto. Not with a digital currency. Something far bigger than that – and it's already been signed and sealed in the back rooms of D.C., ready to be issued by the U.S. Treasury.

Bypassing every legal and political channel under the guise of "national security," Trump has enacted this total money reset using a landmark executive order (1421).

Whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, whether you support this new money or not, it doesn't matter.

Soon, every U.S. citizen will be forced to use Trump's New Dollar to fill their gas tank, buy groceries, and pay medical bills.

Which is why I've produced a critical new documentary laying out exactly what Trump's New Dollar means for your savings, your investments, and your family's financial future.

Detailing three important steps you can take today to prepare – including the name of a core band of assets connected to Trump’s initiative that could surge as a result.

As you’ll see in my briefing, the last time America reset its money like this – under Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s – it created one of the greatest wealth divides in the history of our nation.

On one side, it minted an average of 1,300 new millionaires a day for over half a century. And on the other… the folks left behind, drowning in debt, with no idea how to use America’s new money to create wealth.

As Trump rolls out his new dollar, the question is:

Which side will you be on?

Good investing,
Porter Stansberry

PS. If you’re wondering what Trump’s new money will look like, when it will be issued, what it means for your investments – all of those questions are answered in my briefing.

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

The Clock Running on Real Estate Debt

Two years of silence are ending all at once.

For two years, the commercial real estate crisis never showed up. Analysts warned. Headlines predicted waves of defaults. They did not come.

The reason was mechanical. Banks kept pushing loan deadlines forward instead of forcing a reckoning. First American, a real estate data firm, tracked the trend. Lenders extended 41% of maturing commercial real estate loans in 2024. That bought time. It did not fix the math.

Now extensions are ending. That share fell to 21% in 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association counted $875 billion in commercial real estate loans due this year. The wall did not vanish. It compressed.

The Big Idea

Three forces press on $875 billion in maturing debt. Loans written at 3% to 4% must refinance at 6% to 7%. Office vacancy sits near 18%, and lenders have cut extensions in half. The system is shifting from delay to resolution.

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The Rate Gap, Made Real

Commercial real estate, or CRE, covers office towers, apartments, hotels, and warehouses. Most CRE loans run five to ten years. When they mature, the borrower refinances at the market rate.

A $10 million loan at 4% costs $33,333 per month in interest. That same loan at 6.5% today costs $54,167. That is $250,000 more per year. Same building. Same tenants. Same revenue. The debt service bill jumped by a quarter million dollars.

This gap hits every borrower whose income did not grow enough to cover it. Trepp, which tracks CRE debt nationwide, found that 15% of maturing loans cannot qualify for refinancing. That holds even if rates fall below 6%. The buildings do not earn enough.

Observation: $875 billion in loans written at 3% to 4% must refinance at 6% to 7%.
Interpretation: The rate gap creates a shortfall in debt service. Borrowers must find new capital, restructure, or sell.

The Extension Machine Winds Down

Extending a loan means pushing its due date forward. The borrower keeps paying. The lender avoids recording a loss. Both sides prefer this to a fire sale.

In 2024, lenders extended $384 billion in loans. By 2025, that fell to $200 billion. Matthews Real Estate reported in May that 2026 extensions last months, not years. The shift from years to months tells the story.

The resolution paths are plain. Inject new equity to cover the gap. Restructure at a lower loan balance. Or sell the property, often at a loss. Each path forces someone to absorb the difference the extension was hiding. Distressed sales rose from $1.1 billion in early 2020 to $13.8 billion by mid-2025. The sorting is already in motion.

Observation: Extensions dropped from 41% of maturities in 2024 to 21% in 2025. Remaining 2026 extensions last months.
Interpretation: The system shifted from delay to resolution. All three paths forward require someone to take a loss.

Where the Stress Concentrates

Office is the epicenter. Yardi Matrix tracks commercial property data nationwide. They reported office vacancy at 17.6% in April. Fewer tenants mean less income. Less income means lower building values. That makes the rate gap harder to close.

CMBS are bonds built from pools of CRE loans. Office CMBS delinquency hit a record 12.34% in January, according to Trepp. The building-level math is showing up in the bond market.

The stress falls unevenly across banks. Regional banks hold CRE at 44% of their balance sheets. Large banks hold it at 13%. The Fed ran its annual stress test in June. The 32 largest banks absorbed $76.5 billion in projected CRE losses. Capital stayed well above minimums.

Regional banks with heavy CRE exposure do not appear in that test. That is where the question sits.

Observation: Office CMBS delinquency hit a record 12.34% in January. Regional banks carry CRE at 44% of assets versus 13% at the largest banks.
Interpretation: Large banks absorb the stress. The pressure concentrates in regional banks and in office, where vacancy and delinquency reinforce each other.

Quick Hits

  • $875 billion in CRE loans mature in 2026.

  • Loans originated at 3% to 4% face refinancing rates of 6% to 7%.

  • A $10 million loan repricing from 4% to 6.5% costs $250,000 more per year.

  • Loan extensions dropped from 41% of maturities in 2024 to 21% in 2025.

  • Office CMBS delinquency hit an all-time high of 12.34% in January.

  • Regional banks hold CRE at 44% of balance sheets versus 13% at large banks.

  • The MBA forecasts $805 billion in new CRE originations for 2026.

What the Sorting Process Looks Like From Here

This is not a collapse. The MBA's origination forecast of $805 billion shows capital flowing back into CRE. Borrowers with solid income streams are refinancing. The system is working through the backlog, not seizing up.

But the sorting is real. Every loan that cannot clear the rate gap must resolve through new equity, restructuring, or sale. That process reprices assets downward. It presses on the balance sheets that hold those loans. Regional banks feel it most. CRE is nearly half of their assets.

Two signals are worth watching over the next two quarters. The first is office CMBS delinquency rates. If they push past January's record, the sorting is speeding up. The second is CRE charge-offs at regional banks. Rising charge-offs mean paper losses are turning real.

The quiet of the last two years was mechanical. Banks extended because they could. That option is narrowing. What comes next is mechanical too.

The Map So Far

Loans written at 3% to 4% must now refinance at 6% to 7%. Stronger borrowers clear the gap. Weaker assets change hands at lower values.

Until next time,
The Navigator

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