In May 2019, Congress hauled a Cleveland parts maker into a public hearing.

The committee's investigation found profit margins that ran, on some parts, past 4,000%.

Lawmakers demanded audits. Cameras rolled. The founder refused to apologize.

Then something strange happened.

According to congressional disclosure records, at least six members of Congress bought the stock.

At least four of the lawmakers who demanded audits owned it. One congressman made ten separate purchases totaling $185,000 over five weeks.

The man who chaired the hearing? A shareholder.

Think about what that means. The people who saw the company's books up close, who saw exactly how those margins worked, decided the right move wasn't to break it up.

It was to own it.

Since its 2006 IPO at $21, the stock has returned 5,700% before dividends. It trades around $1,232 today.

Dylan Jovine spent months inside the filings, the disclosures, and the hearing record. His full briefing on what Congress found, and what they did next, is free today.

See what Congress saw >>

Friday, October 23, 2026

Three funded facilities. None producing yet.

The United States last produced gallium in 1987. The Pentagon holds no gallium stockpile. China makes 98% of the world's supply.

On November 27, 2026, China's temporary suspension of its gallium export ban expires. If it lapses, the ban comes back. The US has no domestic source to fall back on.

Federal money is moving. Hundreds of millions of dollars flow into new facilities. But money and material are not the same thing.

Three forces act on the US gallium supply at once. China's policy clock ticks toward a hard deadline. Federal capital flows into production capacity at real scale. But gallium's chemistry prevents that money from producing material fast enough. The timing gap between dollars committed and gallium produced is the pressure point.

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The executive order Trump can sign tomorrow — the same legal authority FDR used in 1934 to move billions in wealth overnight — and exactly how to position before it happens.

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China suspended its ban on gallium exports to the US in November 2025. China's Ministry of Commerce set the expiry for November 27. Until then, Chinese producers can sell to US civilian buyers under a license.

The suspension has a hard limit. China's military end-user ban came in December 2024. It never lifted. No Chinese gallium can flow to any entity tied to the US military. That restriction held through the entire suspension.

This matters because gallium's most critical use is military. Gallium nitride semiconductors power radar and communications in modern weapons. The civilian channel is open for now. The defense channel is not open at all.

Observation: China's gallium export suspension expires November 27, 2026.
Interpretation: The civilian window is temporary. The military ban holds. US defense supply from China stays at zero. The clock is structural, not political.

Since January 2026, the federal government has committed over $600 million to gallium production. The spending came through the Defense Production Act, a Cold War law that lets the Pentagon fund private companies for national security.

That money moved at a pace that would have been unthinkable five years ago. But capital and output run on different clocks. The Pentagon's largest bet was a $400 million equity stake in ATALCO in Louisiana. ATALCO is Atlantic Alumina Company. Its target: 50 metric tons of gallium per year. It is not producing yet. Nine months later, the Pentagon committed $174 million to Alcoa's Wagerup refinery in Western Australia. Target: 100 metric tons per year. Wagerup broke ground in late 2026. A third award of $29.9 million went to ElementUS Minerals for a demonstration plant in Louisiana. ElementUS is still proving its process.

Three facilities. Combined target: about 150 metric tons per year. None produce gallium today. The November 27 deadline arrives before any of them can.

Observation: Over $600 million committed to three facilities since January 2026.
Interpretation: Federal capital is building capacity. Production timelines run years behind the spending. The deadline arrives first.

Gallium cannot be mined. It does not form deposits. It is a trace element inside alumina ore. It can only be recovered as a byproduct of aluminum refining.

You cannot build a gallium mine. You build an alumina refinery first. Then you add recovery equipment. Then you process enormous volumes of ore for small amounts of metal. The supply chain starts with bauxite, the raw ore refined into alumina. Gallium comes out only as a secondary product.

The price makes the constraint visible. Gallium trades at about $2,100 per kilogram on the Rotterdam exchange, Europe's main commodity pricing hub. Inside China, it trades near $247. That 8x gap is not shipping cost. It is the export control premium in a single number.

Now the math. ATALCO and Wagerup together plan about 150 tons per year. USGS estimates place US demand at around 19 tons per year. But no facility produces today. Full buildout is years away.

Observation: Planned US-allied capacity totals about 150 tons per year against estimated demand of around 19 tons.
Interpretation: The byproduct constraint limits how fast supply can scale. Money speeds up construction. It does not change the physics of extraction.

The capital is committed. The plans exist. The material does not.

If China extends the suspension, the civilian supply window stays open. The US buys time for its facilities to come online. If the suspension lapses, the ban returns. US buyers face a market where 98% of production sits behind an export wall.

The signal to watch is not the money. That has already moved. The signal is whether November 27 passes quietly or becomes a hard cutoff.

The money has moved. The material has not.

Hundreds of millions flow toward gallium capacity that does not yet produce material. China's export suspension expires November 27. The gap between capital committed and gallium produced is the pressure point.

Until next time,
The Navigator