Dear Friend,

The clock is ticking on the biggest energy deadline in American history…

Aims its full firepower at ONE company.

See, on August 18th, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act kills the federal tax credits that have powered alternative energy for years.

But here’s what almost nobody knows:

When the White House killed credits for solar, wind, EVs, and every other renewable energy source in America…

They left one untouched.

Not only that - they reclassified it alongside oil and nuclear…

And gave it eight years of credits.

Because last June, a drilling crew working right near the Grand Canyon…

Unearthed a well of clean energy producing almost 8 times the output of the largest oil well in Saudi Arabia…

Capable of powering civilization for two million years.

Right here on American soil.

Everything changed that day.

Google signed a 15-year contract…

Bill Gates wrote a $100 million check.

And on July 4th, the government hands this energy source its biggest advantage ever.

One company owns the entire chain.

The window to be an “early investor” is closing fast.

I recommend placing your trade at tomorrow’s market open.

Go here now for the Grand Canyon breakthrough ticker »

Kelly Maguire
The Buck Stops Here
Behind the Markets

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

$10 trillion in bonds roll over at today's rates.

The federal government pays $2.8 billion in interest every day. That number hits before a single program gets funded. Before defense. Before Social Security. The interest bill comes first.

The deficit is growing. But not because of new spending. Spending minus interest is the primary deficit. The Congressional Budget Office projects it will shrink over the next decade. It falls from 2.6% of GDP to 2.1%. The total deficit grows anyway, from 5.8% to 6.7%. The gap between those two numbers is all interest. That gap is the story.

Federal debt has entered a feedback loop. Today's high rates raise next year's interest bill. The larger bill widens the deficit and forces more borrowing. Each turn of the loop costs more than the last.

See this official SEC document? On page 146 Elon Musk revealed the name of a startup that Jeff believes will be…

The next monster IPO on Wall Street. (Click here to get the details)

Even though this has nothing to do with robots, self-driving cars, or rockets…

This startup is growing faster than Tesla… faster than SpaceX… and even 23 times faster than Nvidia.

That's why The Atlantic called it…

"The fastest-growing business in the history of capitalism." (Click here to get the name, 100% free of charge)

One-third of all federal debt matures within twelve months. That is roughly $10 trillion the Treasury must reissue. When a bond matures, the Treasury sells a new one. The new one carries the current rate.

Five years ago, the average rate on federal marketable debt was 1.485%. It has climbed to 3.386%. Every bond that rolls over moves to the higher rate. The debt gets more expensive one auction at a time. Think of it like a drip that never stops.

In May 2026, the Treasury sold 30-year bonds at a 5% yield. That had not happened since 2007.

Observation: The average rate on federal debt has more than doubled in five years.
Interpretation: Every maturing bond that rolls over at higher rates raises the annual interest bill. No new debt is needed for the cost to climb.

This is where the loop shows up in the data. The CBO projects the primary deficit shrinking to 2.1% of GDP by 2036. That is down from 2.6%. Spending minus interest is tightening. But net interest grows from 3.3% of GDP to 4.6% over the same period. The total deficit still grows. Interest is the wedge forcing it open.

In Q1 of fiscal year 2026, net interest made up 44.5% of the entire deficit. Nearly half the government's borrowing covered the cost of past borrowing. It is borrowing to pay for borrowing.

Observation: The primary deficit is shrinking while the total deficit grows.
Interpretation: Interest costs alone are driving the deficit wider.

The loop is sensitive to rates. Small changes compound fast.

A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Long-term yields already sit about 30 basis points above CBO assumptions for 2026. That gap matters. EPIC for America, a nonpartisan fiscal policy group, ran the math. One percentage point above baseline adds $3.2 trillion in extra interest over the decade.

CBO Director Phillip Swagel confirmed this in his February 2026 statement. The reconciliation act Congress passed in 2025 boosted growth and raised revenue, but it also pushed rates higher. That tradeoff cut against the deficit. The rate effect was larger than the revenue gain. At this scale of debt, even a small rate increase swallows the growth benefit.

Over the CBO's ten-year window, interest costs are set to grow 106%. No other budget line comes close.

Observation: Yields already sit 30 basis points above CBO projections for 2026.
Interpretation: Every basis point above the baseline makes the loop turn faster.

The loop creates steady pressure on Treasury supply. The government must keep issuing debt to cover both programs and interest. More supply means more bonds competing for buyers.

The clearest signal is auction results. When the Treasury sells new debt, the yield tells you what buyers demand. If yields come in above expectations, buyers are requiring more return to absorb the supply. That is the loop feeding itself in real time.

The other signal is the spread between the primary deficit and the total deficit. That spread is pure interest. If it keeps widening, the loop is accelerating. Actual yields already sit 30 basis points above what CBO assumed for 2026. A wider gap there means every official deficit projection understates reality.

Interest costs, not spending programs, are the force widening the deficit. The loop is mechanical and already running. The $2.8 billion the government pays each day in interest is both the output and the fuel.

Until next time,
The Navigator