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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Aug 4, 2026

Three Toll Gates on Every Oil Tanker

No collector has a reason to lower prices.

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Every dollar you own is being replaced

Something strange is happening to your money.

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President Trump is replacing the U.S. dollar.

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Bypassing every legal and political channel under the guise of "national security," Trump has enacted this total money reset using a landmark executive order (1421).

Whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, whether you support this new money or not, it doesn't matter.

Soon, every U.S. citizen will be forced to use Trump's New Dollar to fill their gas tank, buy groceries, and pay medical bills.

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Detailing three important steps you can take today to prepare – including the name of a core band of assets connected to Trump’s initiative that could surge as a result.

As you’ll see in my briefing, the last time America reset its money like this – under Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s – it created one of the greatest wealth divides in the history of our nation.

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Which side will you be on?

Good investing,
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PS. If you’re wondering what Trump’s new money will look like, when it will be issued, what it means for your investments – all of those questions are answered in my briefing.

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Three Toll Gates on Every Oil Tanker

No collector has a reason to lower prices.

On June 7, Egypt's Suez Canal Authority issued a set of surcharge circulars. Effective July 15, loaded crude oil tankers pay a 37% surcharge on normal canal dues. Up from 25%. Dry bulk surcharges more than doubled, from 10% to 22%. Carriers hauling liquefied natural gas (LNG) jumped from 7% to 19%.

This is not one canal raising prices. This is the third toll gate to tighten in six months. Every major maritime shortcut on Earth now has a collector charging more. Each one's pricing power grows when the other two are squeezed.

The Big Idea

Three chokepoints carry much of global shipping: Suez, Hormuz, and Panama. All three are extracting more per transit at the same time. Each one gains power when the others are blocked or constrained. Global freight now has a cost floor that did not exist a year ago.

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Egypt's Math

The Suez Canal earned $9.4 billion in fiscal year 2023. Then Red Sea attacks by Houthi forces pushed ships around Africa. Revenue fell to $7.2 billion in 2024. Traffic in early 2026 still sits roughly 60% below normal.

Fewer ships, but the same fiscal hole. So Egypt charges more per ship.

The logic sharpened when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026. Oil tankers that used to cross Hormuz started routing through Suez instead. In April, 529 tankers transited the canal. That was up 28% from the year before. Overall traffic rose 14%. Revenue climbed to $4.67 billion. Still less than half the $9.4 billion peak.

Egypt now holds pricing power over the ships that need it most. Tankers avoiding Hormuz have no other shortcut. So Egypt raises the tanker surcharge to 37%, the highest of any vessel class.

Observation: Suez revenue recovered to $4.67 billion but remains less than half the $9.4 billion peak. Traffic stays 60% below normal.
Interpretation: Egypt is extracting maximum revenue per transit because it cannot recover volume. The surcharges are not recovery. They are compensation.

The Second Gate

In May 2026, Iran created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. It presents itself as a regulatory body governing transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported transit fees reaching $2 million per vessel.

James R. Holmes holds the J.C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College. He put it plainly. "As best I can tell the only service Iran would be charging for is not attacking shipping."

Hormuz and Suez now reinforce each other. When Hormuz closed, tankers flooded into Suez. Egypt raised tanker surcharges. When Suez surcharges climb, the cost of avoiding Hormuz rises too. Two gates, two toll collectors, same logic.

Observation: Iran created a toll authority at Hormuz in May 2026. Transit fees have reached $2 million per vessel.
Interpretation: Hormuz is now a revenue extraction point. Its closure pushes traffic to Suez, where Egypt raises prices on exactly that traffic.

The Port at the Bottom

Panama completes the triangle. The canal authority is lowering the maximum draft at its Neopanamax Locks. These are the larger set, built for the biggest ships. Draft is how deep a loaded ship sits in the water. The limit drops to 14.94 meters on July 24. It falls again to 14.78 meters on August 15. Lower limits mean each ship carries less cargo.

Hormuz's closure cut off the only route for Middle Eastern LNG to reach Asia. Asian buyers turned to U.S. suppliers. U.S. LNG tankers bound for Asia transit through Panama. More ships now compete for fewer effective slots. Slot auctions have exceeded $1 million at peak demand. The canal expects revenue to beat its $5.2 billion forecast for fiscal 2026.

Panama is not raising prices by decree like Egypt. It is raising them by scarcity. The mechanism differs. The outcome is the same.

Observation: Panama is tightening draft limits while Hormuz-displaced LNG traffic pushes slot auctions past $1 million.
Interpretation: All three chokepoints are extracting at once. Panama profits from the same disruption feeding Suez.

The Trap

So where does a ship go to avoid all three? The Cape of Good Hope, around the southern tip of Africa. No toll. But a large tanker pays $400,000 to $800,000 in Suez Canal tolls per transit. The "free" route is not free. Every path has a cost. Three of the four are rising.

These costs flow downstream. LNG carriers pay surcharges at Suez and scarcity premiums at Panama. The Cape route adds its own fuel penalty. Europe imports a large share of its gas as LNG. Higher shipping costs raise the delivered price of every cargo. European gas storage sits at 42% of capacity. That is 15 points below the five-year seasonal norm. Winter is approaching. Refilling gets more expensive when every route to deliver the gas costs more.

Observation: Suez Canal tolls run $400,000 to $800,000 per vessel. European gas storage sits 15 points below the five-year norm.
Interpretation: There is no free route left. The toll structure at three chokepoints feeds directly into energy costs.

Quick Hits

  • Egypt raised Suez surcharges effective July 15. Crude tankers at 37%, dry bulk at 22%, LNG carriers at 19%.

  • Suez revenue fell from $9.4 billion in FY2023 to $7.2 billion in FY2024. Year-to-date revenue reached $4.67 billion in FY2025/26, running 23% ahead of the prior-year pace.

  • Suez oil tanker transits surged 28% in April after Hormuz closed.

  • Iran's Strait Authority began charging up to $2 million per Hormuz transit in mid-2026.

  • Panama will lower Neopanamax draft limits to 14.78 meters by August 15.

  • Panama slot auctions have exceeded $1 million per transit at peak demand.

  • European gas storage sits at 42% of capacity, 15 points below the five-year seasonal norm.

What Three Toll Gates Mean for Energy and Freight

Three sovereign operators are extracting tolls at the same time. Each one gains power when the other two tighten. Freight costs have a new floor.

Egypt's next surcharge revision will show whether extraction accelerates. Panama's August 15 draft restriction will tighten slot competition further. Hormuz fee enforcement will signal how aggressively Iran collects. European gas storage reports matter most as autumn nears. Each of these signals reinforces the others.

The Map So Far

Every major shortcut now has a toll collector. The Cape route carries its own fuel penalty. Three governments hold the cost floor in place, and none of them has a reason to lower it.

Until next time,
The Navigator

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