Editor's Note: Former tech executive Jeff Brown picked Nvidia in 2016. It's up 25,155% since. He recommended Bitcoin at $240. It's up 31,219% since. And he's been ahead of the curve on Elon Musk's businesses for over a decade. In fact, he was one of the first to predict SpaceX's IPO. But today, he says this goes beyond SpaceX. Elon is building something even bigger. And you can get in right now, on the ground floor. Click here for the details or read more below.

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Host, Elon Musk’s 70X AI Agent.

Monday, September 28, 2026

Beijing cut exports 70% while Washington set a deadline it can't meet.

Tungsten prices quadrupled outside China this year. Inside China, they fell. Same metal. Two separate price worlds.

That split is the output of a machine worth understanding. Three forces built it. Beijing tightened supply through a phased policy sequence. Washington created a hard demand deadline it cannot yet meet. And tungsten trades on no exchange. No futures. No public price signal. The squeeze built in the dark.

A supply restriction becomes invisible when no market exists to price it. Tungsten has no exchange, no futures, no hedging tools. That gap let Beijing's twelve-month export squeeze compound without triggering a response. APT, or ammonium paratungstate, is the standard traded form of processed tungsten. It ran from $83 per kilogram to $340. The two-tiered market is what happens when dominance meets a void in price discovery.

In the 1970s, three oil giants found it. They buried it to protect oil.

Sixty years later, one company finally cracked it.

Google just signed a 15-year deal. The biggest names in tech are moving in fast.

That window does not stay open once the crowd wakes up.

Tungsten is among the densest metals in industrial use. It sits at the core of armour-piercing rounds, cutting tools, and chip manufacturing. China controls roughly 79% of global production. The U.S. has not mined any commercially since 2015.

Beijing did not restrict exports in one move. It built a sequence over twelve months. In February 2025, it imposed export licensing on tungsten products. In February 2025, it added tungsten carbide and tungsten oxide to its dual-use items catalogue. Dual-use means items with both civilian and military applications. In December 2025, it named just fifteen companies approved to export for 2026 and 2027. Everyone else was frozen out.

Chinese APT exports dropped from 782 tonnes in 2024 to 243 tonnes in eleven months. That is a 70% collapse. At the same time, China's concentrate imports surged 116%. Beijing closed the valve outward and pulled supply inward.

Observation: APT export volumes collapsed 70% under the new licensing regime.
Interpretation: Beijing converted supply dominance into a deliberate chokepoint, draining the global market while stockpiling feedstock at home.

Tungsten does not trade on any commodity exchange. No futures contracts. No options. No hedging. Prices are set through private bilateral deals. A handful of agencies like Fastmarkets and Argus track them.

There was no public price signal screaming "shortage" as Beijing tightened. No ticker. No chart on cable news. When copper supply tightens, futures move the same day. Traders adjust. Hedges kick in. Tungsten has none of that. The squeeze built in private. By the time industry buyers registered the shift, the price had already run fourfold.

A metric tonne unit, or MTU, equals 10 kilograms of contained tungsten oxide. It is the standard pricing measure for concentrate. Concentrate outside China has held between $2,500 and $2,800 per MTU since late May. Chinese domestic prices fell roughly half from their March peak. One pair of numbers. Two different worlds.

Observation: Ex-China concentrate holds above $2,500 per MTU while Chinese domestic prices fell.
Interpretation: The two-tiered market is the result of a supply chokepoint meeting a market with zero price discovery infrastructure.

While Beijing was tightening supply, Washington was creating demand it cannot fill.

The Defence Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS) bans Chinese-origin tungsten from U.S. weapons contracts. The ban takes effect January 1, 2027. Every stage of production, from mining through fabrication, must be free of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

On August 27, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) banned exports of tungsten scrap. The reason is plain. The U.S. exported roughly 4,700 tons of tungsten in 2025, including scrap. It mined none. Washington was sending raw material out the door while the supply chain behind it was being cut.

Both policies push demand onto a supply base that barely exists. Eleven new mine projects are underway worldwide. Ex-China supply is still forecast to reach only about 34,000 tonnes by 2030. Projected demand sits near 180,000 tonnes. That is a 146,000-tonne structural gap. Substitution is nearly impossible for most uses. New mines take years. As Anthony Milewski of The Oregon Group put it, tungsten does not lack a price signal. It lacks enough financed, permitted, and qualified production.

Observation: The DFARS ban takes effect January 1, 2027. The BIS scrap export ban took effect August 27, 2026.
Interpretation: Washington locked in a hard deadline for non-Chinese tungsten while the supply base to meet it does not exist at scale.

The DFARS deadline ties these forces together. It turns a supply squeeze into a procurement crisis. Defence contractors need non-Chinese tungsten in volume. That volume does not exist yet.

Watch whether the deadline holds, slips, or forces emergency waivers. If it holds, contractors scramble for scarce supply and prices outside China stay elevated. If it slips, it signals Washington is not ready to decouple on this material.

Beijing has run similar restrictions on antimony, gallium, and germanium. The formula repeats: dominant supply, phased controls, thin market. Tungsten is the sharpest case because the market has no exchange at all. The two-tiered price split is not a temporary distortion. It is the surface of a structural rearrangement now locked in by policy on both sides.

China built a supply chokepoint over twelve months. The absence of an exchange hid it until it was structural. The two-tiered market, rising prices outside China and falling prices inside, is the visible proof.

Until next time,
The Navigator