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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Oct 31, 2026

What $52.7B in Chip Funding Missed

Prices jumped 55% in two years. One U.S. mine isn't enough.

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Saturday, October 31, 2026

What $52.7B in Chip Funding Missed

Prices jumped 55% in two years. One U.S. mine isn't enough.

The CHIPS Act committed $52.7 billion to build chip factories on American soil. New fabs are going up in Arizona, Ohio, and Texas. The money covers factories, packaging, and workforce training.

It skips the one mineral every factory needs to etch a chip.

The U.S. mined zero fluorspar until 2026. It had mined none for thirty years. Every ounce comes from abroad. Much of the world's supply comes from the same country the fabs were built to bypass.

The Big Idea

The CHIPS Act addressed the factory, not the chemical supply chain underneath. Every chip fab uses hydrofluoric acid (HF) to etch silicon dioxide off wafers. That acid comes from fluorspar, a mineral from the earth. The U.S. has no domestic supply. The one mine meant to fix that has not started sustained production.

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From Rock to Chip

Fluorspar is a mineral pulled from underground deposits. It is the starting material for HF.

Processors heat fluorspar with sulfuric acid to produce HF. That acid is then purified to extreme levels for chip fabs. Inside the fab, HF etches silicon dioxide off wafers. It cleans surfaces between processing steps. Without it, the patterns that define a chip cannot be cut.

The chain is physical. Mineral in the ground becomes acid in a factory becomes a circuit on a wafer. Break any link and the fab stops.

Observation: Every semiconductor fab uses HF made from fluorspar to etch and clean silicon wafers.
Interpretation: Fluorspar is the first link in the chip supply chain. Without it, no downstream investment matters.

Thirty Years of Zero

The last fluorspar mine in the U.S. closed in 1995. Chinese producers flooded the global market and priced domestic miners out. No one reopened.

For three decades, the U.S. has imported every ton it uses. The U.S. Geological Survey counted 436,000 metric tons imported in the latest data year. China produces 60% of the world's fluorspar. Mexico, the actual lifeline, supplies 59% of U.S. imports. The entire chip buildout runs on foreign rock.

The CHIPS Act included no provisions for these mineral supply chains. The Center for Strategic and International Studies flagged this gap. The money went downstream. Upstream was left alone.

The ChinaTalk podcast reported in July 2026: "All of these domestic production requirements are being announced, but without any of the supply chain underneath."

Observation: The U.S. imports 100% of its fluorspar. China produces 60% of global output. Mexico supplies 59% of U.S. imports.
Interpretation: The CHIPS Act funded the end of the supply chain. It left the beginning in foreign hands.

The Price Signal and the One Mine

The market already sees the constraint. Fluorspar traded near $400 per metric ton in 2024. By mid-2026, it reached $622. That is a 55% rise in two years.

China's export licensing regime now covers fluorspar. It sits alongside rare earths and tungsten on the restricted list. Formosa Plastics, one of the world's largest HF producers, raised prices in mid-2026. Every fab that opens will pay more for the acid its wafers require.

One company is trying to close the gap. Ares Strategic Mining holds the only permitted fluorspar mine in the U.S. It sits at Spor Mountain in Utah. The Pentagon gave it a $169 million contract. Ares opened a processing plant in October 2026.

Its 2026 SEC filing states: "has not yet commenced sustained commercial processing or sales." One mine, not yet at scale, against 436,000 metric tons of annual imports.

Observation: Fluorspar prices rose 55% from 2024 to mid-2026. The sole permitted U.S. mine has not begun sustained production.
Interpretation: The market is pricing a structural gap that one early-stage mine cannot close alone.

Quick Hits

  • The CHIPS Act put $52.7 billion into chip fabs. Zero went to upstream minerals.

  • Fluorspar is the starting material for HF. Every chip fab needs it to etch wafers.

  • The U.S. did not mine fluorspar from 1995 until 2026. It imports 100% of its supply.

  • China produces 60% of the world's fluorspar. Mexico supplies 59% of U.S. imports.

  • Fluorspar rose from roughly $400 per metric ton in 2024 to $622 by mid-2026.

  • Ares Strategic Mining holds the only permitted U.S. fluorspar mine. The Pentagon gave it a $169 million contract.

  • Ares opened a Utah processing plant in October 2026 but has not started sustained production.

What This Means for the Fab Buildout

The factories are going up. TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, is building in Arizona. Intel is building alongside it; Samsung is building in Texas. The equipment is arriving. None of that changes the chemical reality underneath.

Every one of those fabs will need HF. That acid will come from fluorspar. That fluorspar will come from the same countries the buildout was meant to bypass.

Three signals are worth watching in the coming months. First, whether Ares hits sustained production at its Utah plant. Second, how fluorspar pricing moves as China's export licensing terms settle. Third, whether any future legislation adds upstream mineral provisions to the chip supply chain.

The factories are designed to reduce foreign dependence. The mineral chain underneath them has not changed.

The Map So Far

The U.S. committed $52.7 billion to build chip factories. The one mineral those factories need still comes entirely from abroad. The single mine meant to change that has not reached commercial scale.

Until next time,
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