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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Oct 10, 2026

What $79 Billion in Defense Needs

Signed contracts worth $79 billion are waiting on it.

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Elon's newest bet has nothing to do with rockets

Editor's Note: Jason Bodner spent nearly two decades on Wall Street placing billion-dollar trades for the world's largest funds. Along the way, he built a system that has flagged stocks like Nvidia before a 7,000%+ run, Super Micro Computer before a 2,600%+ run, and Vertiv before a 1,900%+ run. Now he says a radical new "light-speed" device is about to launch the next wave of AI winners — and he's giving away his #1 stock pick completely free. Click here to see the details or read more below.

Hi,

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Saturday, October 10, 2026

What $79 Billion in Defense Needs

Signed contracts worth $79 billion are waiting on it.

Antimony is a metal most people never think about. It hardens lead for ammunition. It goes into flame retardants and missile parts. The US imports 91% of what it uses, per the US Geological Survey. Most of that comes from China.

On November 27, China's temporary export suspension expires. The only US mine that can replace Chinese supply won't produce until late 2029. That leaves a three-year gap. Signed Pentagon contracts worth $79 billion are locking in demand across that entire window.

The Big Idea

Three forces are acting on US antimony supply at once. A hard policy deadline hits November 27. The only domestic mine is years from production. Military demand is growing on a fixed contract schedule. The gap between them is not a forecast. It is arithmetic.

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The Supply Cliff

China banned antimony exports to the US in December 2024. Following earlier export controls, shipments fell 97%. In November 2025, Beijing suspended the ban for civilian uses only. Military exports were never reopened. Every shipment still requires a license from China's Ministry of Commerce.

That suspension expires November 27, 2026. Whether Beijing renews, tightens, or drops it, the licensing regime stays. The valve is in Beijing's hands.

The US gets 55% of its antimony directly from China. But Belgium and India, which supply another 18%, depend on Chinese feedstock themselves. True exposure runs higher than the headline number. China, Tajikistan, and Russia together control 86% of global supply.

Recycling from old lead-acid batteries covers 12% of US consumption. That is the entire secondary supply. There is no diversified base to fall back on.

Observation: Earlier 2024 export controls cut US-bound shipments by 97%.
Interpretation: The dependency is not theoretical. It has been tested. The supply channel shuts off fast and completely when Beijing decides to close it.

The Three-Year Wait

The US had not mined antimony at commercial scale from 2001 until 2025. One project can change that. Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project in central Idaho holds 148 million pounds in proven and probable reserves. It has a $2.9 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank. Few other US antimony mines are in development.

But early construction only began in October 2025. Perpetua's filings from May through September 2026 all cite late 2029 as first production. Three years of construction is three years of construction. Federal funding and political will cannot compress rock, concrete, and engineering.

At full output, Stibnite could supply about 35% of US demand. That is a real solution. It just does not arrive for three more years.

Observation: Stibnite has the reserves, the federal loan, and the mandate. Its earliest production date is late 2029.
Interpretation: The bottleneck is not funding or policy. It is physical construction time. The gap is geological, not political.

Demand Into the Gap

Forty percent of US antimony goes to hardened lead and ammunition. That share is growing.

Two contracts signed this year tell the story. On July 29, 2026, the Pentagon awarded Lockheed Martin up to $58.62 billion. The contract covers seven years of PAC-3 MSE production, a Patriot missile interceptor. Output triples by 2030. Two months later, on September 28, 2026, Raytheon received up to $20.7 billion for AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. That contract runs five years and nearly doubles prior output.

Together: $79 billion in signed, multiyear munitions orders. Not projections. Purchase orders. They run straight through the 2026-to-2029 window.

Against that demand, the federal supply response is real but small. The Defense Logistics Agency awarded US Antimony Corporation 3,026 tonnes over five years. That works out to about 605 tonnes per year.

US antimony consumption in 2025 was roughly 45,000 tonnes. The DLA contract covers 1.3%.

US Antimony is also expanding its Montana smelter to 300 tons per month by mid-2026. At full capacity, that adds about 3,600 tonnes per year. Still under 8% of consumption.

Real steps. They do not close the gap.

Observation: The DLA stockpile contract delivers 605 tonnes per year against 45,000 tonnes of consumption. That is 1.3%.
Interpretation: The federal response is real. But 1.3% does not bridge a 91% dependency. The gap stays open through 2029.

Quick Hits

  • China's antimony export suspension expires November 27, 2026. The licensing regime stays regardless.

  • The US imports 91% of its antimony. China, Tajikistan, and Russia control 86% of global supply.

  • Earlier 2024 export controls cut US-bound shipments by 97%.

  • Stibnite is the largest domestic mine in development. First production is targeted for late 2029.

  • The DLA stockpile contract covers 1.3% of annual US consumption.

  • Signed Pentagon munitions contracts totaling $79 billion lock in demand through at least 2033.

  • Recycling covers just 12% of US consumption.

What the Gap Looks Like From Here

Three timelines sit on top of each other. The policy deadline is November 27. The only mine that changes the math is three years out. The demand contracts are already signed and growing.

The system is doing what it can. The DLA is stockpiling. The smelter is expanding. Stibnite is under construction. None of these efforts are hollow. But 605 tonnes against 45,000 is a ratio, not a solution.

The signals worth watching: whether Beijing renews, modifies, or drops the November 27 suspension. Any change to Perpetua's construction timeline. And whether new DLA or Defense Production Act contracts appear to widen the federal bridge.

These forces are structural. They do not resolve in days. The timelines are fixed. No single policy announcement can compress them.

The Map So Far

The US depends on one foreign source for a metal its defense industry needs. Demand is growing. The only domestic fix is real but years away. The interim federal response covers about one percent.

Until next time,
The Navigator

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