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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

May 12, 2026

What A Fracturing Fed Is Quietly Telling Us About Where Things Stand

The rate decision was straightforward. Almost everything else wasn't.

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Same Starting Point. Same Savings. One Decision Made The Difference.

Five years from now, there are going to be two types of retirees in America.

One is greeting strangers at Walmart in a blue vest. Not because they want to. Because the war in Iran was the first domino that knocked their retirement sideways and they never saw it coming.

The other is sitting on a beach with a margarita. Not because they got lucky. Because they understood what the Iran war was really about and made one simple move.

Here's what most people are missing.

The war in Iran isn't about nukes. It's about oil being sold in yuan instead of dollars.

Every barrel that leaves the dollar system makes your savings worth less. And 40 countries are following Iran's lead.

The retiree at Walmart kept everything in the same 401(k) their advisor set up ten years ago. They watched the dollar weaken. They watched inflation eat their savings. They hoped somebody in Washington would fix it. Nobody did.

The retiree on the beach moved a portion of their retirement into the one asset that goes up when the dollar goes down. Took 15 minutes. No taxes. No penalties. And they slept fine while everyone else panicked.

Same starting point. Same savings. One decision made the difference.

A free report called "The Great Gold Reset" shows you exactly what the Iran war means for your dollars, why it's accelerating a shift that was already underway, and the simple move that separates the Walmart greeters from the beach retirees.

Download Your Free Report Here

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

What A Fracturing Fed Is Quietly Telling Us About Where Things Stand

The rate decision was straightforward. Almost everything else wasn't.

The Fed Just Had Its Most Divided Meeting in Over 30 Years

On April 29, the Federal Reserve did exactly what everyone expected. It held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% for the third meeting in a row. Markets had priced in a 100% chance of no change. No drama there.

What nobody quite expected was four dissenting votes. That's the most internal disagreement at an FOMC meeting since October 1992. And the really striking part is that the four dissenters weren't even disagreeing about the same thing.

The Big Idea

Here's how the split broke down. Governor Stephen Miran voted to cut rates by a quarter point. He's dissented in favor of a cut at every meeting since joining the Fed in September 2025. His view is that the energy-driven inflation spike is temporary and that keeping rates too high risks weakening an already soft labor market.

The other three dissenters, Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas, went the other direction entirely. They didn't want a cut. They wanted to remove the easing bias from the statement, the language that hints future cuts are still on the table. Their argument is that keeping that language in place is inconsistent with an inflation picture still running well above the Fed's 2% target.

One official pushing for a looser policy. Three pushing for tighter messaging. All four voting against the same decision for completely different reasons.

Powell addressed it directly, noting the Fed is navigating at least four separate supply shocks: the pandemic, Ukraine, tariffs, and now the Iran war. Each one creates real uncertainty about the right call. When reasonable, informed people look at the same numbers and reach opposite conclusions, that tells you something about how genuinely difficult the current environment is to read.

Did You See The State Department Map?

I'm releasing a restricted intelligence briefing on a "Hidden Inheritance."

This is the result of 20 years of work by the U.S. Extended Continental Shelf Project.

In December, federal filings finally revealed the coordinates of this discovery.

American investors can now position themselves for a $500 trillion resource windfall.

This is made possible through one small public company already holding the key partnerships.

Most Americans have no idea the U.S. just added territory larger than Texas and California combined.

I don't know how long I can keep this briefing online before the "insiders" try to pull it.

See the official coordinates and the ticker here.

See the ticker and the $500T Briefing here »

Quick Hits

  • Final vote: 8-4 to hold rates, most dissents since October 1992.

  • Miran dissented for a cut. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented against keeping easing language.

  • Markets now pricing in no rate changes through the rest of 2026 and into early 2027.

  • This was Powell's final meeting as chair. Warsh was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee the same day.

  • Powell confirmed he will stay on the Board of Governors while an investigation into the Fed plays out.

What This Means for Orientation

When a committee that normally runs on consensus fractures this publicly, it's a sign that the underlying data isn't pointing clearly in one direction. Inflation is elevated but energy-driven. The labor market is stable but softening. Growth is holding but uncertain. The disagreement on the committee is a direct reflection of those competing signals, not a failure of the institution.

That's what makes this moment worth understanding. The Fed isn't confused. It's divided because the conditions genuinely support multiple interpretations at once.

Bottom Line

Four dissents, pulling in opposite directions, at Jerome Powell's final meeting. That's not a routine outcome. It's the clearest signal yet that the current environment is harder to navigate than any single policy stance can fully account for. When the Fed's own officials can't agree on which way the risks are leaning, that tension doesn't disappear after the meeting ends. It stays in the system, shaping how the next decisions get made and who gets to make them.

Until next time,
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