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Can he be right?
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What Central Banks Know About Gold
Actual purchases were fifteen times the official figure.
"The price is not a primary consideration for us."
Artur Sobon, a board member of Poland's central bank, said that to Bloomberg. He said it while Poland was buying gold at record prices. Poland now holds 614 tonnes. A decade ago it held 102 tonnes. Its public target is 700 tonnes. It is not done buying. And it does not care what gold costs.
This is not how traders talk. This is how institutions talk when they have made a permanent policy decision. Poland is not alone. Dozens of central banks are doing the same thing. The reason traces back to a single event in February 2022.
The Big Idea
In 2022, the West froze roughly $300 billion of Russia's reserves. Every reserve manager on earth learned the same lesson. Dollar assets held abroad can be seized. Gold in a vault cannot. The result is a structural reallocation into gold. It doubled the annual buying rate. Four years later, it shows no sign of slowing.
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The Trigger and the New Baseline
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The Group of Seven froze about $300 billion in Russian central bank assets held overseas. The money did not disappear. It became untouchable. For Russia, it was a punishment. For every other central bank watching, it was a lesson.
The lesson was simple. Sovereign wealth in another country's currency is only yours until that country says otherwise. Gold in your own vault has no counterparty. No other party can block your access. No one can freeze it. No one can sanction it away.
Before 2022, central banks bought roughly 500 tonnes of gold per year. After 2022, the pace doubled. Every year from 2022 through 2024 came in above 1,000 tonnes. Even 2025, a slower year, hit 863 tonnes. The four-year average: roughly 1,000 tonnes per year. Double the prior decade. This is not a reaction. It is a new baseline.
Observation: Central bank gold purchases doubled after 2022. The rate went from roughly 500 tonnes per year to roughly 1,000.
Interpretation: The Russia reserve freeze changed the risk math for sovereign reserves. Gold became the only major reserve asset with no counterparty. Dozens of institutions began reallocating on that basis alone.
The Buying Is Spreading
The first quarter of 2026 made the pattern harder to ignore. Central banks added a net 244 tonnes of gold. At current prices, that is roughly $36 billion in one quarter. It beat both the prior quarter and the five-year average.
Poland led again. China's central bank has bought gold for 20 consecutive months. It now holds 2,331 tonnes, about 9% of its total reserves. The Czech Republic made its 38th consecutive monthly purchase, targeting 100 tonnes by 2028.
The buyer base is also widening. The WGC's Shaokai Fan put it plainly. Institutions absent from the gold market for years are now buying for the first time. The list includes Guatemala, Cambodia, Kenya, Uganda, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
These are small reserve managers. They drew the same conclusion Poland and China drew four years ago. Dollar reserves carry counterparty risk. Gold in a vault does not.
Observation: Q1 2026 saw 244 tonnes of central bank gold purchases. First-time buyers came from Latin America, Southeast Asia, and East Africa.
Interpretation: The reallocation is no longer limited to large economies with geopolitical exposure. It is spreading to institutions that never held gold before. The shift is becoming a global norm among reserve managers.
The Hidden Scale
The IMF reported 16 tonnes of central bank gold purchases in Q1 2026. The World Gold Council estimated 244 tonnes. That is fifteen times the official figure.
The gap exists because the two sources measure differently. The IMF relies on what central banks choose to report. The WGC tracks actual gold moving through the system. London is where most wholesale gold trades settle. Swiss refineries process most of the world's gold bars. The WGC uses flow data from both to estimate real purchases. Many central banks are not required to disclose in real time, and many choose not to. This pattern has held steady since 2022.
The cumulative result now shows on the global balance sheet. Morgan Stanley reported gold at 27% of global central bank reserves by the end of 2025. U.S. Treasuries made up 22%. That is the first time gold has passed Treasuries in reserve share since 1996. In dollar terms, foreign central banks hold roughly $4.5 trillion in gold. They hold about $3.5 trillion in U.S. government bonds.
Observation: IMF-reported central bank gold purchases in Q1 2026 were 16 tonnes. Estimated actual purchases were 244 tonnes. That 15x gap has persisted since 2022.
Interpretation: Official data dramatically understates the scale of the reallocation. Gold has already overtaken Treasuries as the dominant reserve asset globally. The true pace of accumulation is far larger than public filings show.
Quick Hits
Central banks purchased an estimated 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, roughly $36 billion at current prices.
Poland holds 614 tonnes and is targeting 700. Its board has said publicly that price is not a factor.
China has bought gold for 20 consecutive months and now holds 2,331 tonnes.
The Czech Republic has made 38 consecutive monthly purchases, targeting 100 tonnes by 2028.
First-time gold buyers in 2026 include Guatemala, Cambodia, Kenya, Uganda, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
The IMF reported 16 tonnes of Q1 purchases. The World Gold Council estimated 244 tonnes.
Gold now represents 27% of global central bank reserves. U.S. Treasuries represent 22%. Gold has not led since 1996.
What the Reserve Shift Means From Here
The World Gold Council published its 2026 central bank survey on June 16. A record 45% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings over the next twelve months. Another 74% expect the dollar's share of reserves to fall over the next five years.
Separately, 90% cited gold's performance during crises as a primary reason to hold it. That is the highest figure in nine years of the survey.
These are institutions with multi-year mandates, not traders reacting to a price chart. Poland still has 86 tonnes to buy before it hits 700. The Czech Republic has a 2028 deadline. China has bought every single month since late 2024. The mechanism is patient. It does not speed up when gold rallies. It does not stop when gold pulls back.
Three signals worth watching in the coming months. First, quarterly WGC demand reports. Second, Poland's monthly purchase disclosures. Third, whether first-time buyers like Guatemala and Kenya sustain purchases into Q3 and Q4.
The Map So Far
Central banks are executing a multi-year reallocation from dollar assets to gold. The force began in 2022, doubled the buying rate, and is still spreading. The mechanism is policy, not price.
Until next time,
The Navigator



