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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Sep 18, 2026

What Nvidia Locked Up for $4B

A CEO compared it to the worst chip crises in history.

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Could Elon make you a millionaireX returns?

Editor's Note: Former tech executive Jeff Brown picked Nvidia in 2016. It's up 25,155% since. He recommended Bitcoin at $240. It's up 31,219% since. And he's been ahead of the curve on Elon Musk's businesses for over a decade. In fact, he was one of the first to predict SpaceX's IPO. But today, he says this goes beyond SpaceX. Elon is building something even bigger. And you can get in right now, on the ground floor. Click here for the details or read more below.

Dear Reader,

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In the short term, Musk has said it’s “not impossible” to see his AI agent return 70 times the investment.

If he’s right… just $15,000 invested in Elon Musk’s AI agent — would make you a millionaire.

You don’t need to be tech savvy at all.

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Host, Elon Musk’s 70X AI Agent.

Friday, September 18, 2026

What Nvidia Locked Up for $4B

A CEO compared it to the worst chip crises in history.

On July 8, Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston spoke at the RAISE Summit in Paris. Lumentum is one of two companies that make the lasers inside AI data centers. He compared the indium phosphide shortage to the memory chip crises of the 1990s and 2000s. He said it could be worse.

Most people assume the bottleneck in AI is the GPU. Hurlston pointed to the laser instead. Not the processor that does the math. The tiny component that lets processors talk to each other using light.

His company runs five fabrication plants for these lasers. Hurlston told the audience that shipments still fall well short of what customers need. The gap is widening, not closing.

The Big Idea

Every GPU cluster in an AI data center sends data on beams of light. Those beams come from lasers made of indium phosphide. Three forces have trapped its supply. It can only be produced as a byproduct of zinc mining. China controls 69% of refined output and has restricted exports. And Nvidia has locked up the two companies that turn it into lasers. The bottleneck is not the chip. It is the light.

This Loan Shouldn't Be Possible

A federal board just voted unanimously to lend roughly $3 billion to one American mining company.

That loan is bigger than the company's entire market cap. Not half of it. Bigger than the whole thing.

One of those two valuations is wrong, and the papers get signed in the second half of this year.

Name, ticker and the paperwork here >>

The Material That Cannot Be Replaced

A transceiver converts electrical signals into light so GPUs can talk to each other. Most transceivers in AI data centers use a laser grown on indium phosphide. Silicon cannot do this job. Its atomic structure does not allow it to produce light. Indium phosphide can. It works at the exact wavelengths fiber optic cables carry best. There is no substitute.

The supply problem is physical. Indium does not come from indium mines. No such mines exist. About 95% of the world's refined indium is recovered during zinc processing. It is a byproduct, like sawdust from lumber. You cannot get more sawdust without cutting more trees. You cannot get more indium without refining more zinc.

When indium demand rises, the price rises. But supply does not follow. Zinc economics control the output, not indium economics. Hurlston described the shift in plain terms. Traditional telecom customers ordered lasers in the hundreds. AI customers now order them in the hundreds of millions.

Observation: Indium supply is physically coupled to zinc refining. It cannot respond to rising demand on its own.

Interpretation: This is a structural rigidity. Price signals that normally call new supply into a market do not work here.

The Geopolitical Choke

China refines 69% of the world's indium, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That concentration gives Beijing a lever. In February 2025, Beijing pulled it. Export controls on indium-related materials took effect. By 2026, Chinese exports had fallen by roughly two-thirds. Shipments to the United States dropped 77%.

The price followed. Indium sold for about $383 per kilogram before the controls. By mid-2026, Western benchmarks hit $972. The United States has no mine or refinery production of indium. When two-thirds of supply disappears, there is no second source.

Observation: China's export restrictions removed two-thirds of global indium supply from the open market. The price more than doubled.

Interpretation: A supply that was already rigid is now actively constrained by policy. Two independent forces, byproduct physics and export controls, squeeze the same material from different directions.

The $4 Billion Lock-Up

Nvidia saw this coming. On March 2, 2026, Nvidia announced $4 billion in investments. The money split evenly between Coherent and Lumentum. Those are the only two companies with major indium phosphide laser production. The deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and long-term access to future output.

Manufacturing cannot close the gap quickly. Indium phosphide wafers are still made on 2- to 4-inch platforms. Silicon fabs use 12-inch wafers. The difference in scale compounds because only 15% to 50% of indium phosphide wafers come out usable. Even with new investment, the first major expansions did not come online until mid-2026.

That leaves existing supply locked. Lead times for non-Nvidia buyers stretch past 2027. Hurlston said the two companies combined cannot meet the demand Nvidia and others are placing. McKinsey projects high-speed transceiver production will fall 40 to 60 percent short of demand through 2027. Shortfalls persist through 2029.

Observation: Nvidia locked up most available indium phosphide laser capacity through the decade with $4 billion.

Interpretation: Supply that was already rigid and geopolitically choked is now allocated to one buyer. Three independent forces converge on one chokepoint.

Quick Hits

  • Indium phosphide is the only laser material for AI transceivers because silicon cannot emit light.

  • About 95% of refined indium is recovered from zinc processing, not from dedicated mines.

  • China refines 69% of global indium and restricted exports in February 2025, cutting supply by two-thirds.

  • Indium prices rose from roughly $383 to $972 per kilogram in eighteen months.

  • Nvidia invested $4 billion in Coherent and Lumentum, the two dominant indium phosphide laser makers.

  • Non-Nvidia buyers now face lead times stretching past 2027.

  • McKinsey projects transceiver shortfalls lasting through 2029.

What This Means for the AI Buildout

The AI supply chain has a chokepoint most investors have never heard of. It sits between the zinc mine and the GPU cluster. A handful of fabrication plants turn indium phosphide into lasers smaller than a grain of rice.

Three forces press on that chokepoint at once. Byproduct physics keeps supply rigid. Chinese export controls keep it scarce. Nvidia's capital keeps it allocated. Each force operates on its own. All three squeeze the same point.

Three signals are worth watching. Indium spot prices. Any shift in China's export posture on strategic minerals. And whether companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon find alternative laser suppliers. This is not a one-quarter problem. The structural forces extend through the end of the decade.

The Map So Far

The largest infrastructure buildout in a generation runs on a component most people cannot see. It is made from a metal most investors have never heard of. Three independent forces have locked its supply. The constraint is not the processor. It is the light.

Until next time,
The Navigator

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