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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Sep 1, 2026

What Rare Earth Exports Are Signaling

One set by Washington, the other enforced by Beijing.

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How to reset the dollar

Every now and again, a financial system becomes so corrupted, and so broken, that it has to go through a reset. Sometimes the reset is planned and pushed through by radical policy.

Other times, the forces behind it seem simply to arise.

It doesn’t happen often. In fact, it is extremely rare.

But when it does, the reset sends a shockwave through the entire financial system

Revolutionizing the way people make, save, and spend their money.

More than 300 years ago, Britain experienced just such a reset.

The Royal Mint had a serious problem – a huge proportion of the currency in circulation was fake.

Counterfeiters were wreaking havoc. As many as one in every 10 coins was believed to be counterfeit.

Meanwhile, genuine silver coins were disappearing to Paris and Amsterdam, where they were melted down and sold as bullion.

Britain’s money had lost its integrity.

The Royal Mint urgently needed a visionary…

A man with the investigative instincts of Sherlock Holmes – and an unrivalled understanding of mathematics and metals.

The government turned to the brightest mind in Britain – Sir Isaac Newton.

The man who had brought order to the cosmos was now charged with bringing order to Britain’s money.

His changes were both radical and daring.

Newton oversaw the recall of Britain’s silver coins in what became known as the Great Recoinage.

He introduced new standards of accuracy and purity…

And helped set Britain on the path toward the gold standard.

He even created a network of spies and informants to hunt down the counterfeiters destroying confidence in Britain’s money.

He infiltrated their networks, gathered evidence against them, and secured their prosecution.

His reforms made Britain’s money work again.

“As a result of Newton’s vision, coins struck by The Royal Mint remain unrivalled in their accuracy and purity. He helped to make Britain’s currency one of the most respected and admired in the world.”
– The Westminster Collection

Newton’s reforms restored trust and helped generate millions in new wealth.

Money and merchants flowed into London because people once again trusted the coins produced by the Royal Mint.

The corrupted money was destroyed…

Allowing a new, trusted monetary system to take its place.

It became a historic turning point for Britain.

Newton’s reset was a response to a financial system that had stopped working for ordinary people.

I’m writing to you today because, more than three centuries later, my latest research suggests it’s happening again.

This time, the reset is taking place at the heart of the world’s most powerful currency – the U.S. Dollar.

President Trump is quietly rebuilding the monetary order beneath the U.S. dollar for the first time in 52 years.

It wasn’t put to a vote.

It has barely been discussed in Congress.

And most Americans have no idea what it could mean for their savings, investments, or cost of living.

But just as Newton’s reforms redirected wealth across Britain…

Trump’s New Dollar could redraw the financial map of America – creating extraordinary wealth for those positioned on the right side, while leaving millions trapped on the wrong one.

I believe a new reset is already underway – and I’d like to show you which assets could thrive, which could be left behind, and my #1 move to make today to help you prepare.

Go here for the full story

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

What Rare Earth Exports Are Signaling

One set by Washington, the other enforced by Beijing.

On January 1, 2027, a federal law takes effect. It bars Chinese-origin rare earth magnets from U.S. weapons systems. Every stage of production counts. Mining, refining, separation, fabrication. If any step touched China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea, the magnet is banned.

That deadline is less than five months away. The supply chain to replace those magnets does not exist at the scale required.

This is not a funding problem. Billions of dollars are already flowing into Western rare earth projects. It is a physics-and-time problem. The materials move through a processing chain that takes years to build. The clock started too late.

The Big Idea

The Pentagon mandated a non-Chinese supply chain for the magnets inside its weapons by January 2027. China refines 98% of the heavy rare earths those magnets need. Western producers combined made a fraction of one year's demand in the first half of 2026. Three forces are converging on one deadline: a policy mandate, a processing monopoly, and a production gap that capital alone cannot close in time.

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The Mandate Has Teeth

This law comes from the FY2019, FY2021, and FY2024 National Defense Authorization Acts. It covers samarium-cobalt magnets, neodymium-iron-boron magnets, tantalum, and tungsten. The scope is broad. If any part of the supply chain runs through a covered country, the product fails.

For years, the DoD issued waivers. Domestic production was too thin to meet demand, so Chinese magnets kept flowing through a legal side door. That door is closing. An executive order shifted waivers from default approval to strict item-by-item review. After January 1, 2027, the waiver authority under 10 U.S.C. §4872 is restricted to contractors who submit an acceptable mitigation plan.

Enforcement carries real weight. Violations can trigger contract termination and False Claims Act liability. The DoD is preparing spot checks using X-ray fluorescence to verify origins. Contractors cannot paper over this.

Observation: The waiver mechanism that allowed Chinese magnets into U.S. weapons for years is closing, with further restrictions on January 1, 2027.
Interpretation: The mandate shifts from symbolic to structural. Contractors face a hard compliance deadline with no administrative escape valve.

The Monopoly on the Other Side

China controls 98% of global heavy rare earth refining. That number is not about mining. It is about the chemical separation that turns raw ore into usable material. The bottleneck sits in the middle of the chain, not at the mine.

Two elements matter most: dysprosium and terbium. These are heavy rare earths added to magnets so they hold their strength above 150°C. Standard neodymium magnets weaken at that temperature. Dysprosium and terbium push the threshold past 200°C. That is the range inside jet engines and weapon actuators. Without them, the magnets in an F-35 do not work.

On April 4, 2025, China placed export controls on seven heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium. Those controls have never been lifted. Chinese customs data shows exports running about 50% below their pre-restriction baseline. Dysprosium is up 163% since the start of 2025, according to Strategic Metals Invest. The supply side is tightening at the same moment the U.S. mandate creates demand for non-Chinese sources.

Observation: China's April 2025 export controls on heavy rare earths remain active. Exports are running at roughly half the prior baseline.
Interpretation: The only large-scale supplier of the materials the mandate requires is restricting output. Prices confirm the squeeze.

The Production Math

Lynas Rare Earths is the only non-Chinese company producing separated dysprosium and terbium at commercial scale. In the first quarter of 2026, Lynas produced 8 tonnes of those two elements combined. Global demand runs roughly 2,000 tonnes a year. Eight tonnes against 2,000. That is the ratio.

The finished magnet picture is just as stark. The U.S. consumed about 48,000 tonnes of neodymium-iron-boron magnets in 2025. It produced around 300 tonnes domestically. The F-35 alone uses dysprosium-enhanced magnets across more than 20 assemblies per airframe. Over 3,000 aircraft are committed at the program level.

Capital is pouring in. MP Materials is building a $1.25 billion magnet campus in Texas. Energy Fuels is targeting 12 tonnes per year of terbium by 2027. But a processing plant takes 18 months to five years after permits, according to WisdomTree. MP Materials does not expect to commission its facility until 2028, a full year after the deadline. The IEA confirmed the math: even if every announced project delivers on schedule, refining capacity outside China covers only two-thirds of mine output by 2035.

The gap is not a capital problem. It is a time problem.

Observation: The only non-Chinese source of separated heavy rare earths produced 8 tonnes in one quarter against 2,000 tonnes of annual global demand.
Interpretation: Western capacity cannot scale fast enough to fill the gap before January 2027. The constraint is physical, not financial.

Quick Hits

  • January 1, 2027: federal law bars Chinese-origin rare earth magnets from U.S. weapons systems.

  • China controls 98% of global heavy rare earth refining capacity.

  • Chinese exports of dysprosium and terbium are running about 50% below pre-restriction levels.

  • Dysprosium is up 163% since the start of 2025.

  • Lynas, the only non-Chinese separated heavy rare earth producer, made 8 tonnes in Q1 2026 against roughly 2,000 tonnes of annual demand.

  • The U.S. consumed 48,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets in 2025 and produced 300 domestically.

  • The IEA says planned non-Chinese refining covers only two-thirds of mine output by 2035, even if every project delivers on time.

What This Means Before January

Two deadlines are stacking. China's partial export control suspension on some heavy rare earths expires in late 2026. The heavy rare earth controls from April 2025 never had a suspension at all. Weeks after any remaining Chinese flexibility could tighten further, the U.S. procurement ban activates.

The signal worth tracking is not production announcements. Those timelines stretch into the late 2020s and early 2030s. The signal is administrative. Watch whether the DoD adjusts its waiver policy before January. Watch Lynas’s quarterly output for any change in the 8-tonne baseline. Watch Chinese export license approval rates for dysprosium and terbium.

The mandate is set. The monopoly is measured. The production math is public. The only variable that can shift before January is the policy itself.

The Map So Far

The Pentagon set a hard deadline for a supply chain that does not exist at scale. The gap between the mandate and Western capacity is measured in years, not months. The forces are structural, and the clock is running.

Until next time,
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