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Jason Van Steenwyk
Jason Van Steenwyk

Oct 1, 2026

What Uranium Prices Are Signaling

Three contracts signed. Zero fuel produced.

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What Uranium Prices Are Signaling

Three contracts signed. Zero fuel produced.

The US government spent $2.7 billion in January 2026 to rebuild domestic uranium enrichment. The ban on Russian enriched uranium takes full effect January 1, 2028. The first replacement plant produces fuel in 2029 at the earliest.

That is a gap of at least one year. The money is spent. The ban is live. The fuel is not ready. Money does not compress construction timelines.

The Big Idea

The US banned Russian enrichment services starting 2028. Every funded domestic facility delivers first commercial fuel between 2029 and 2032. The gap is not a planning error. It is a physical constraint that capital alone cannot close.

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The Size of the Hole

Enrichment is a specific industrial step. Mined uranium cannot fuel a reactor directly. Centrifuge plants must process it first. They raise the concentration of usable material. Enrichment is the bottleneck.

Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, controls roughly 44% of global enrichment capacity. The EIA reported US operators bought 3.28 million SWU of Russian enrichment in 2025. A separative work unit, or SWU, measures the industrial effort to enrich uranium. That Russian share equaled 26% of total US purchases. A decade earlier it was 17%.

The US has one commercial enrichment plant. Urenco's facility in New Mexico produces about 4.3 million SWU per year. Total US reactor demand in 2025 was 13 million SWU. One plant covers roughly a third.

The rest came from allied enrichers in France, the UK, and the Netherlands. Those facilities were already near capacity before the ban. In November 2024, Russia imposed its own retaliatory export ban. It told US customers their licenses were rescinded. The cliff may arrive before the statutory deadline.

Observation: The US depends on foreign enrichment for 67% of its reactor fuel. Russia alone supplied 26%.
Interpretation: Removing Russia's share creates a hole the single domestic plant cannot fill. Allied enrichers have no spare capacity to absorb it.

The Late Arrivals

The DOE awarded $2.7 billion in January 2026 across three $900 million contracts. The recipients: Centrus Energy, Orano, and a startup called General Matter. The money is real. The timelines are the problem.

Centrifuge plants take years to build, license, and commission. No amount of capital changes the sequence.

Centrus Energy, in Piketon, Ohio, arrives first. It is the only licensed Western facility producing HALEU. HALEU is uranium enriched to between 5% and 20%. Advanced reactor designs require it. Centrus targets 12 metric tons per year by early 2029. That is the earliest new fuel on the calendar. It is still a year late.

The rest land further out. Orano's Project Ike in Oak Ridge, Tennessee targets 2031. It carries a roughly $5 billion price tag. Orano is contributing $4.1 billion of its own capital. Initial capacity: 4 million SWU. Urenco's new New Mexico plant targets 2032. Full capacity of 2.1 million SWU arrives by 2036. That project is privately financed. General Matter, in Paducah, Kentucky, targets 2030.

The ban hits January 1, 2028. The earliest new production arrives in 2029. The largest new plants deliver in 2031 and 2032. Funding buys blueprints and contracts. It does not compress years of construction.

Observation: Every funded replacement facility produces its first commercial fuel between 2029 and 2032.
Interpretation: A minimum one-year structural gap exists between the ban and meaningful new supply. Capital is deployed, but the calendar does not bend.

The Gap That Grows

The supply hole is not temporary. It widens.

In May 2025, President Trump signed executive orders on nuclear energy. They target 400 gigawatts of US capacity by 2050. The current fleet produces roughly 100 gigawatts. The country built that 100 GW over 70 years. The target demands 300 GW more in 25.

The Breakthrough Institute, an energy research organization, ran the numbers. Planned capacity covers only 10% to 25% of projected 2050 needs.

Advanced reactors add another constraint. Most new designs require HALEU. No Western commercial source exists at scale. Only Russia and China produce it in volume. The ban removes the only accessible supplier. A growing reactor fleet will need far more than early HALEU production can deliver.

SWU spot prices confirm the strain. They have doubled since 2022 to roughly $200. That price reflects a supply chain falling behind.

The Breakthrough Institute: "Markets do not form around announcements. They form around contracts." Until the government purchases actual fuel, the HALEU gap stays open.

Observation: The 400 GW target requires five to ten times current enrichment capacity. Planned additions cover a fraction of that.
Interpretation: The gap between the ban and first new production is not temporary. It grows into a long-term deficit as demand scales.

Quick Hits

  • The Russian enrichment ban takes full effect January 1, 2028. Russia supplied 26% of US enrichment purchases in 2025.

  • Rosatom controls roughly 44% of global enrichment capacity.

  • The sole US enrichment plant produces 4.3 million SWU per year. Total demand is 13 million SWU.

  • DOE awarded $2.7 billion in January 2026 to Centrus, Orano, and General Matter.

  • The earliest new production arrives in 2029. The largest plants target 2031 and 2032.

  • SWU spot prices doubled to roughly $200 as the market priced the supply constraint.

  • The Breakthrough Institute estimates planned capacity covers 10% to 25% of 2050 needs.

What This Means for the Nuclear Fuel Chain

The pattern is visible once you lay the timelines side by side. Policy set one deadline. Physics set another. They do not match.

The signals worth watching over the next several months are straightforward. Does any facility accelerate its production timeline? Does the DOE purchase actual HALEU, or does the funding sit idle? What does the SWU spot price do as January 2028 gets closer?

A rising SWU price tells you the market is pricing the gap. A falling price would mean new supply appeared. Since 2022, SWU prices have only moved up.

The Map So Far

The US banned Russian enriched uranium with a 2028 deadline. Every funded replacement arrives after it. The gap is structural, widens with demand growth, and cannot be closed by capital alone.

Until next time,
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