Write down this ticker today…
40-year trading legend says billions are about to flood into it
Editor's Note: Larry Benedict — the hedge fund legend who beat the S&P 500 by 18 times in 2025 and made his clients $95 million during the 2008 crisis — says Trump's installation of a new Federal Reserve chair is triggering the most significant shift in U.S. markets in nearly 20 years. He has already identified the one ticker he believes will be at the center of the money flows — and he's revealing it completely free. Click here to see the details or read more below…
Dear Reader,
Grab a pen and write down this ticker: TLT.
It could be the single most valuable ticker you hear about all year.
Beginning May 2026, billions of dollars could pass through it.
But before you rush out and buy it… WAIT.
There is a very specific way you must play this ticker if you want to make real money from it.
Do it wrong, and you'll only capture a fraction of what's possible.
Do it right, and you could double your money in a matter of days.
I know, because I've done exactly that before.
My name is Larry Benedict, and I've been trading TLT for years.
In that time, I've watched a 4% move in this ticker turn into a 117% gain for my readers who followed my recommendation — in just a matter of days.
And it’s all because of the very specific way I trade it.
Discover how to access exactly how I trade this ticker — and why right now is the best setup I’ve seen in years — by watching this exclusive, free briefing.
Regards,
Larry Benedict
Founder, The Opportunistic Trader
P.S. The current setup on TLT is more attractive than I have seen in years – but it won’t last forever — so if you want to learn how to position for what could be some of your best gains of 2026, click here.
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Why Brent Crossed $100 This Week
The fallback was supposed to work, not create a second trap.
Two tankers carrying 2.7 million barrels of Saudi crude turned around in the Red Sea on July 21. The Rodos and the Xin Long Yang left Yanbu headed for Asia. They never made it past the strait.
Brent crude sat at $88 on July 20. Three days later, it crossed $100. For the month, oil is up 40%. A ceasefire had broken down around Hormuz. Yet prices kept climbing.
The reason is not Hormuz. The reason is what happened to the backup plan.
The Big Idea
Saudi Arabia built a 1,200-kilometer pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. When Hormuz closed, 70% of Saudi exports rerouted through it to Yanbu, a Red Sea port. But every tanker leaving Yanbu for Asia must pass through Bab al-Mandeb, another narrow strait. When the Houthis blockaded it on July 20, both exits closed at once.
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Gate One: Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 20 million barrels per day before it closed in February. Eighty to eighty-five percent of Saudi exports moved through it. The closure forced Saudi Arabia to activate its backup: the Petroline.
The Petroline runs east to west across the Arabian Peninsula. Its standard capacity is about 5 million barrels per day. Saudi Aramco pushed it to a record 7 million. They did it by converting natural gas pipelines to carry crude. The system worked. Oil flowed west instead of east.
Observation: Saudi Arabia pushed pipeline throughput to 7 million bpd, 40% above normal capacity.
Interpretation: The pipeline absorbed most of the lost Hormuz volume. But it funneled everything toward a single destination.
The Funnel: Yanbu and the Strait Behind It
Before Hormuz closed, Yanbu loaded fewer than 1 million barrels per day. After the rerouting, that number jumped to roughly 4 million. More than 70% of Saudi crude exports now flow through this one port.
The port has a capacity problem. It can load 3 to 4 million barrels per day. Refineries along the coast draw about 1 million barrels before any crude reaches a tanker. The pipeline pushes more oil than the port can ship.
But the bigger problem is geography. Every tanker leaving Yanbu for Asia sails south through Bab al-Mandeb. The strait is 26 kilometers wide. Shipping moves through two channels, the narrower about two miles across. Seventy to seventy-five percent of Saudi crude exports pass through this single gap.
The pipeline did not remove the chokepoint. It moved it 1,200 kilometers west.
Observation: Yanbu exports rose fourfold. More than 70% of Saudi crude exports now transit Bab al-Mandeb to reach Asian markets.
Interpretation: Saudi Arabia traded one bottleneck for another. The concentration at Yanbu created a vulnerability the old system did not have.
Gate Two: The Blockade
The Houthis are the armed group that controls northern Yemen and its Red Sea coastline. They operate with direct backing from Iran.
On July 16, Reuters reported that Iran instructed the Houthis to prepare to close Bab al-Mandeb. Officers from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps were in Yemen controlling the timing. Four days later, the Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.
On July 22, they struck the Encelia, a Saudi-flagged tanker leaving Yanbu. The second gate closed.
The proof showed up fast. Saudi loadings dropped 33% in two weeks. They fell from 4.2 million to 2.8 million barrels per day. Vessel traffic through Bab al-Mandeb fell 34%. Seven ships changed course. The Rodos and Xin Long Yang carried 2.7 million barrels between them. Both turned north and sailed away from Asia.
Brent jumped from $88 to above $100 in three trading days.
Observation: Saudi loadings fell 33% and Bab al-Mandeb traffic dropped 34% within two weeks of the blockade.
Interpretation: The backup route is now contested. Oil that reached Yanbu cannot reliably leave.
Quick Hits
Saudi Aramco pushed the Petroline to a record 7 million bpd by converting gas pipelines to crude service.
Yanbu exports rose from under 1 million to roughly 4 million bpd after the Hormuz closure.
More than 70% of Saudi crude exports now route through Yanbu and Bab al-Mandeb.
Saudi loadings fell 33% in two weeks, from 4.2 million to 2.8 million bpd.
Bab al-Mandeb vessel traffic dropped 34% after the July 20 blockade.
The Houthis struck the tanker Encelia on July 22, the first hit on a Saudi-flagged vessel from Yanbu.
Brent crude rose from $88 to above $100 between July 20 and July 23.
What the Two-Chokepoint Trap Means From Here
One partial escape exists. The Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline (Suez-Mediterranean) carry roughly 1.45 million barrels per day northbound to the Mediterranean. That helps European buyers. It does nothing for the 3.1 million barrels per day headed south to Asia. Those cargoes have no alternative route.
Three signals are worth watching over the next few weeks. First, Yanbu loading rates. If they keep falling, the port is cut off in practice. Second, Bab al-Mandeb vessel counts. If commercial ships stay away, insurance costs will enforce the blockade even without another strike. Third, whether the US Navy begins escorting Saudi tankers through the strait. That decision would signal how Washington reads the risk.
Both ends of the Saudi export system are contested at once. The bypass was the plan. The plan is now blocked.
The Map So Far
The Rodos and the Xin Long Yang are still heading north, away from the route the pipeline was built to feed. Twenty-five to thirty percent of global seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz alone. No modern precedent exists for this configuration.
Until next time,
The Navigator
