The Fed is giving Wall Street less warning
Editor’s Note: Before sharing his trades with everyday people, Larry Benedict managed money for the Bank of New York, sovereign wealth funds, and some of America’s wealthiest families. During the 2008 crash alone, he generated $95 million for his clients. Now he’s revealing the one ticker he believes sits at the center of Trump’s new Fed moves. Click here to see it, or read more below.
Dear Reader,
Trump’s Federal Reserve has made a change that could give prepared investors the chance to make rapid gains…
While everyone else is still trying to work out what happened.
According to hedge fund legend Larry Benedict, one ticker sits directly in the path of these faster, less predictable moves.
Since taking charge in May, Kevin Warsh has stopped signaling what the Fed is likely to do next.
He has dropped its “forward guidance”…
Shortened its policy statements…
And even raised the possibility of holding fewer rate-setting meetings.
The effect has already been felt.
Reuters says Warsh’s first Fed meeting “blindsided traders” and forced markets to rapidly rethink where interest rates were heading.
Wall Street fears less warning could mean sharper market swings.
Larry Benedict sees the opportunity to profit from them.
Larry has spent 40 years trading around Fed decisions and generated $274 million for his hedge fund clients.
Now he is revealing exactly where he plans to position before the Fed’s next decision on October 27.
And he’s giving away the ticker completely free.
Best wishes,
Lauren Wingfield
Managing Editor, The Opportunistic Trader
P.S. If the Fed gives investors less warning, waiting for the headlines could leave you behind the move. Get Larry’s ticker here now.
Thursday, September 24, 2026
Why Lithium Left and Can't Come Back
One expired license pulled 10% of China's supply overnight.
On June 29, CATL received a safety production permit for its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi, China. CATL is the world's largest battery maker. Before the mine went dark, it supplied roughly 10% of China's lithium carbonate, the refined compound in every EV battery. The market expected supply to return.
Six weeks later, it has not. On August 7, the Yichun environmental bureau confirmed no ore has been processed or moved from the site. The permit arrived. The lithium did not.
That gap between a piece of paper and actual production is the entire story of lithium right now. Battery-grade lithium carbonate has climbed near $20,000 per tonne, according to Fastmarkets. It sat at $8,259 at its trough in June 2025. The price has more than doubled. The mine that was supposed to ease the pressure is still idle.
The Big Idea
Supply leaves a commodity market in a day. It takes months or years to come back. The distance between removal and restart is where prices move. Lithium just demonstrated this twice, on two different continents. The mechanism is not about demand or speculation. It is about the physical and regulatory friction that blocks supply from returning once it has been shut off.
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How Fast the Floor Fell Out
Jianxiawo's mining license expired on August 9, 2025. CATL confirmed the suspension two days later. That single event pulled 8 to 10 percent of China's lithium carbonate production off the market overnight.
The lithium market had been running a surplus, but the cushion was vanishing. Global oversupply fell from about 175,000 tonnes in 2023 to 154,000 in 2024. By 2025, Fastmarkets put the figure at just 10,000 tonnes. When Jianxiawo went dark, there was almost nothing left to absorb the hit.
Chinese spot prices spiked roughly 17% between October and November 2025 alone. One mine, one expired permit, and the thinnest surplus in years. The math did the rest.
Observation: A single mine's permit expiry removed 10% of China's lithium supply in one day. The market's surplus had collapsed from 175,000 to 10,000 tonnes over two years.
Interpretation: The speed of removal had nothing to do with geology or economics. It was administrative. A date on a document passed, and supply vanished. The market's thin cushion meant nothing could absorb the hit.
The Same Pattern, A Different Continent
On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe suspended all exports of unprocessed minerals, including lithium concentrate. Concentrate is the raw material shipped to refiners, who process it into the battery-grade carbonate that the market prices. The ban bypassed the government's own January 2027 deadline by ten months.
Zimbabwe shipped 1.128 million metric tonnes of lithium concentrate, mostly to China, in 2025. That was about 15% of China's concentrate imports for the year. It stopped in a single day.
The ban was instant. The bottleneck behind it is not. Zimbabwe has one operational lithium processing facility. It sits at the Arcadia mine, run by a subsidiary of China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt. It has no spare capacity. Two more plants are under construction, but neither will be ready before 2027. The Zimbabwe Lithium Producers' Association has already asked to push the deadline from January to June 2027.
Supply removed in hours. The infrastructure to restore it does not exist yet.
Observation: Zimbabwe's export ban cut 15% of China's lithium concentrate imports overnight. The country has one processing plant and no spare capacity.
Interpretation: The same pattern repeated on a different continent. Removing supply required one government order. Restoring it requires building industrial plants that take years to finish.
The Permit That Does Not Work
This brings us back to Jianxiawo. The mine got its safety permit. So why is it still idle?
Before the mine went dark, Beijing had already changed the rules. China's revised Mineral Resources Law took effect in July 2025. The law designated lithium as an independent strategic mineral for the first time. Entry barriers rose. Environmental and safety standards tightened. A new minimum ore grade was set at 0.4% lithium oxide. Below that threshold, a deposit no longer qualifies as a lithium orebody.
Jianxiawo's rock grades 0.27%.
The mine has a permit to operate. But the rock itself may no longer meet the legal definition of lithium ore. An environmental impact assessment is still pending. Regulators in Jiangxi also cancelled 27 expired mining permits in December 2025. None were active mines, but the signal was clear. Beijing is tightening, not loosening.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates up to 30,500 tonnes at risk from Jianxiawo's continued delay. The global surplus was roughly 78,000 tonnes. One mine's delay puts 40% of that cushion in question.
Observation: Jianxiawo's ore grades 0.27% lithium oxide. China's new mineral law requires 0.4%. The environmental assessment remains pending.
Interpretation: The regulatory wall is structural, not procedural. The law changed while the mine was idle. Supply that left in one day now faces a barrier measured in quarters, possibly years.
Quick Hits
Lithium carbonate has more than doubled from its June 2025 trough of $8,259 to near $20,000 per tonne.
Jianxiawo produced 10% of China's lithium carbonate before its permit expired on August 9, 2025. It has not restarted.
The global lithium surplus shrank from 175,000 tonnes in 2023 to an estimated 10,000 tonnes in 2025.
Zimbabwe's February 25 ban on unprocessed exports removed 15% of China's lithium concentrate imports in one day.
Zimbabwe has one lithium processing plant with no spare capacity. Two more are not expected before 2027.
China's revised mineral law sets a 0.4% lithium oxide threshold. Jianxiawo's ore grades 0.27%.
Fastmarkets raised its 2027 lithium carbonate forecast to $31.40 per kilogram from $22.65.
What the Restart Gap Means From Here
Automakers and battery makers hedge raw material costs six to twelve months in advance. That is why battery pack prices still fell 8% in 2025. They reached a record low of $108 per kilowatt-hour, according to BloombergNEF, Bloomberg's energy research arm. The hedges acted as a buffer. Spot prices rose, but contracts locked in earlier held the line.
Buffers have a shelf life. If lithium holds above $20,000 per tonne through late 2026 and into 2027, those cheaper contracts expire. Spot prices start flowing through to pack costs directly. Fastmarkets raised its 2026 lithium forecast to $23.80 per kilogram, up from $17.40. Its 2027 forecast jumped to $31.40 from $22.65. The market is pricing in a supply gap that lasts quarters, not weeks.
Three signals are worth tracking over the next few weeks. First, any update on Jianxiawo's environmental impact assessment. Second, Zimbabwe's response to the producers' request for a June 2027 deadline extension. Third, whether battery pack prices in late 2026 hold their 2025 lows or begin to turn. Each one is a pressure point where the restart gap either narrows or widens.
The Map So Far
Two supply shocks hit the lithium market as its surplus collapsed to near zero. One has a permit but no production. The other has a ban but no processing capacity, and the gap between removal and restart is widening.
Until next time,
The Navigator
