Editor's Note: Larry Benedict — the hedge fund legend who beat the S&P 500 by 18 times in 2025 and made his clients $95 million during the 2008 crisis — says Trump's installation of a new Federal Reserve chair is triggering the most significant shift in U.S. markets in nearly 20 years. He has already identified the one ticker he believes will be at the center of the money flows — and he's revealing it completely free. Click here to see the details or read more below…

Dear Reader,

Move your money as soon as possible.

That is the urgent message from Larry Benedict, the trader who generated $274 million in profits for his clients.

Click here to hear his warning

You see, every time the Federal Reserve makes a major move, certain assets move with it, and if you're positioned correctly, the returns can be extraordinary.

When the Fed cut rates in 2020, Larry's readers had the chance to make 62% from a single position.

When it signaled rate hikes in January 2022, they could have made 117% in under a month.

When Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole, Larry had his readers positioned for an 89% gain in just 17 days.

Now, President Trump is installing a new Fed chair and Larry says it's triggering what could be the most significant shift in the U.S. financial system in nearly 20 years.

He has already identified the single ticker he says will be at the center of where the money flows.

Click here to discover the one move Larry is recommending now

Best wishes,
Lauren Wingfield
Managing Editor, The Opportunistic Trader

P.S. If you want to be positioned ahead of what Larry is calling the best setup he’s seen in 20 years, click here now.

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Every crossing costs more freshwater than you'd expect

The Panama Canal Authority cut the maximum ship draft three times over six weeks. July 3, the limit dropped to 49.5 feet. July 24, it dropped to 49.0 feet. A third cut to 48.5 feet is set for August 15. Draft limits set how deep a loaded ship can sit in the water. Lower limits mean less cargo per ship.

These are the first draft restrictions in two years. The canal is running near maximum capacity with traffic it was never built to handle alone.

The Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping on February 28. That strait carries over 20% of the world's seaborne oil. The global shipping system solved the problem by routing cargo through Panama instead. Now Panama is tightening too.

The shipping system routed around one chokepoint and loaded itself onto another. The Panama Canal absorbed the surge from the Hormuz closure. Now El Niño is cutting the water supply that keeps the canal running. The backup plan is becoming the bottleneck.

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Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February in response to U.S. and Israeli operations. The International Energy Agency called it the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. As of July 19, only about 15 ships per day transited the strait. Normal flow is about 88 per day.

Asian buyers needed oil. The Middle East supply they depended on was cut off. They turned to U.S. crude, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and refined products from the Gulf Coast. The shortest route from Texas to Tokyo runs through the Panama Canal.

The canal absorbed the shock. Nikkei Asia reported oil shipments through Panama surged more than 70% in April. BIMCO, a shipping industry group, measured transits averaging 38 vessels per day. That is up 8% year over year. Shipping analyst Filipe Gouveia told Lloyd's List the canal "is currently operating close to maximum capacity." Single transit slots sold for up to $4 million at auction.

Observation: Oil and gas traffic through the Panama Canal surged 70% after Hormuz closed, pushing the canal near maximum capacity.
Interpretation: The system solved one disruption by concentrating risk on a single alternative. That alternative is now a pressure point.

The Panama Canal is not a sea-level channel. It is a freshwater lock system.

Ships enter and rise through locks to Gatun Lake, 85 feet above sea level. They cross the lake. Then they descend through locks on the other side. Every transit drains 52 million gallons of freshwater from the lake into the ocean. That water is gone.

The lake refills one way: seasonal tropical rain. No glaciers. No river diversions. Just rain.

El Niño is a Pacific warming pattern that suppresses rainfall over Central America. NOAA, the federal weather and ocean agency, confirmed an El Niño on June 11. The agency gives a 63% chance it reaches "very strong" status. The probability it persists through winter is 96 to 98%.

More ships drain the lake faster. El Niño slows the rain that fills it back up. These two forces are now pressing on the same system at the same time.

Observation: Each transit drains 52 million gallons from a freshwater lake that refills only by seasonal rain.
Interpretation: Traffic is rising. Rainfall is falling. The canal's physical capacity is shrinking just as demand peaks.

This happened before. In 2023–2024, El Niño created the worst drought at the canal since 1965. Gatun Lake dropped to 79.6 feet. The Canal Authority responded by cutting draft limits from 50 feet to 44 and reducing daily transits from 36 to 22. Overall throughput fell 29%.

That happened under normal traffic levels.

This time, the canal enters El Niño carrying 70% more oil traffic than usual. It is running near maximum capacity. Same forces, worse starting position.

The cost is already moving through the system. On July 25, the Canal Authority suspended regular slot auctions. It cut daily booking capacity from 36 to 34 vessels. Three major container carriers announced surcharges in July. CMA CGM set a $320 charge per TEU on July 25. MSC and Hapag-Lloyd followed with surcharges of $100 and $130, effective in mid-August.

The carriers most exposed are those moving U.S. energy to Asia. Argus Media, an energy reporting service, found Asian buyers now depend on Atlantic supply routed through the canal. Lloyd's List reported the same pattern. Crude oil and refined products that never historically moved through Panama now flow through it daily. These cargoes have no easy detour if the canal tightens further.

Observation: In 2023–2024, El Niño cut canal throughput 29% under normal traffic. The canal now enters a new El Niño at peak capacity.
Interpretation: The same mechanism that produced a 29% throughput decline is running again. This time it starts with 70% more oil traffic and near-maximum vessel counts.

Three cuts over six weeks is a pace signal. The Canal Authority is not waiting. It saw what happened in 2023 and is moving earlier this time. But earlier action does not change the forces at work. It confirms them.

The signals to watch from here are specific. The August 15 draft cut to 48.5 feet is already scheduled. If a fourth cut follows in September, the canal is tracking toward the 2023 pattern. NOAA's fall El Niño intensity updates will show whether the rainfall deficit deepens.

Asian energy buyers face the most pressure. Their supply now flows through both chokepoints, and both are under strain. The freight surcharges are the first cost signal moving through the system. In 2023, more followed as drafts dropped.

The three cuts confirm the canal is on the same path it took in 2023. This time it starts from a worse position. That is the pattern worth watching.

The system rerouted around Hormuz and loaded itself onto Panama. El Niño is now pressing on Panama's physical limits. The draft cuts and surcharges show the squeeze is already moving through the system.

Until next time,
The Navigator